Export Proportion Hits 43%, Sales Quadruple in Two Years: How Far Is BYD from Surpassing Toyota?

The narrative of "cool domestically and hot internationally" has become the main theme of China's automotive market.

According to the latest data from CPCA, July domestic passenger car retail sales reached 1.461 million units, a 20.9% year-over-year decline. Year-to-date cumulative retail sales stand at 10.173 million units, down 20.3% from last year.

Meanwhile, July passenger car exports hit 918,000 units, surging 87.8% year-over-year, with the proportion of export volume to total manufacturer sales climbing to 41% (37% last month, 21% in the same period of 2025).

Regarding the "cool domestic market," CPCA analysis suggests this is due to the resonance of multiple factors, including oil price rebounds, weakening macroeconomics, seasonal slumps, prior demand exhaustion, and policy shifts.

Conversely, the contraction of domestic demand has accelerated the pace of Chinese car companies "going global"—since the domestic market is overcrowded, they go overseas to find blue oceans.

On this rising export curve, BYD's performance has been the most striking.

Data released by BYD shows that overseas sales reached 179,800 units in July, a 124.3% year-over-year increase. Even according to CPCA's statistical standards, BYD's 174,000 unit NEV export sales in July exceeded the combined total of the second-ranked (Chery, 83,000 units) and third-ranked (Tesla, 66,000 units) exporters, establishing a fractured leading advantage.

More importantly, BYD's export proportion of total sales in July rose to 43.1%. It is worth noting that just two years ago in 2024, this proportion was only a little over 10%.

This means BYD is no longer a Chinese brand simply relying on the domestic market, but a truly global car company. This has prompted the outside world to re-examine the strategic vision previously proposed by Wang Chuanfu of "achieving the largest scale globally in five years."

If BYD wants to "achieve the #1 global scale," it will face Toyota, this "giant."

Toyota's strength lies in its global production and sales network and extreme cost control in the fuel vehicle era. What BYD currently demonstrates is the ability to reconstruct the global market on the new energy track.

CPCA data shows that July NEV passenger car exports reached 540,000 units, up 147.8% year-over-year, accounting for 58.8% of total exports, an increase of 14 percentage points compared to the same period last year.

According to CPCA Secretary-General Cui Dongshu's statistics, from January to June 2026, China's NEV passenger car world share reached 62%, and the share in the plug-in hybrid field was as high as 71%.

The share of Chinese NEVs worldwide is rising rapidly. As the global NEV sales champion, BYD is actually standing at the forefront of the global output of China's supply chain.

Data shows that in the first half of 2026, Toyota's global sales were 5.0089 million units, ranking first globally for seven consecutive years; BYD's first-half global sales were 1.8085 million units, ranking sixth. The difference between the two was 3.62 million units, but the speed of narrowing the gap is accelerating—the gap was 13.4 times in 2021, narrowed to 2.7 times in 2023, and by the first half of 2026, the gap between the two is less than 1.7 times.

It took BYD less than two years to increase the export proportion from 10% to 40%. If the overseas market can maintain this growth rate, and Toyota continues to struggle in the quagmire of electrification transformation, then "surpassing" will no longer be a "whether possible" question, but a "when it happens" question.

But sales figures are just the most superficial things. What is truly worth thinking about is, what does BYD rely on to fill this gap of over 3 million units?

Toyota's foundation is a global fuel vehicle system that has been operating for decades; from supply chain to channels to brand perception, it is all stacked up by time.

BYD's opportunity lies in the fact that the technical logic and cost structure of NEVs are completely different from fuel vehicles. It does not need to fight position warfare in Toyota's home field, but uses a new product logic to find its entry point in every regional market.

BYD's overseas strategy can be summarized as "precise entry" and "deep localization." This strategy shows highly flexible adaptability in different regional markets. A highly representative case is the launch of BYD's K-Car in the Japanese market.

On July 28, BYD's pure electric K-Car "Sea Otter Racco," built specifically for the Japanese market, was launched. As of August 9, in less than two weeks, orders broke 1,000 units, with 80% coming from the top-spec version. For any car company wanting to penetrate the Japanese market, this is a capital worth "boasting" about.

It is worth noting that the Japanese market has long been a solid fortress of the global auto industry, with local brands holding absolute dominance. Even "giants" like Volkswagen and Hyundai find it difficult to open the Japanese market. Especially the K-Car market, which has an annual retail volume exceeding 1.6 million units and is known as the totem of Japanese auto culture, has been monopolized for over thirty years by three local giants: Suzuki, Daihatsu, and Honda.

More importantly, due to the adoption of Chinese self-developed parts, the Sea Otter can only receive a subsidy of 150,000 yen in Japan, while local competitors like Nissan Sakura can receive 580,000 yen. Under the subsidy disadvantage of three times that of competitors, orders still exceeded expectations. This directly shows that BYD has already possessed the strength to directly confront Japanese car companies in manufacturing processes and cost control.

An earlier example is BYD's Shark Pickup launched for the Americas, Australia, and other markets. It accurately hit the pain point of combining commercial and home use in the local market, becoming one of the best-selling Chinese brand models. CPCA data shows that BYD Shark Pickup overseas market monthly average sales are about 3,000 units, with sales in some months even exceeding 4,500 units.

Data released by BYD shows that under the boost of the Shark Pickup and subsequent imported Seagull and other NEV models, Brazil has become BYD's largest overseas market, with cumulative export volume reaching 194,700 units in the first half. Meanwhile, just on July 16, the 100,000th car of BYD Brazil factory officially rolled off the production line.

From Japan's exquisite K-Car to America's tough Pickup, BYD is no longer exporting "global products," but providing "regional customization." This transformation allows it to quickly fill the market void left by traditional brands.

Orient Securities forecasts that BYD's 2026 full-year sales will exceed 5 million units, with overseas sales between 1.8 million and 1.9 million units, a year-over-year growth of 75%.

Morgan Stanley predicts that BYD overseas sales will reach 1.6 million to 1.8 million units, with a year-over-year growth of 68% to 89%. It estimates that the company's passenger car share in markets like Brazil, Thailand, and Australia has exceeded 5%, and NEV sales share in multiple regions exceeds 20%.

Under the dual drive of "involution" and "going overseas," Chinese car companies represented by BYD are gradually transforming "surpassing Toyota" from a vision into reality through differentiated product strategies and deep localization layout. Whether it is the K-Car in the Japanese market or the Shark Pickup in the Americas, it proves that China's automotive industry has the ability to compete in the global diverse market.

In the future, with more companies like BYD digging deep in the overseas market, China's automotive industry's global share is expected to further increase, and the industry trend of "East Rising, West Declining" will be irreversible.