Chinese Carmakers Set to Control Over 4% of European Vehicle Production Capacity

According to the latest forecast from US research firm Mobility Global, Chinese enterprises' share of European automotive production capacity is projected to climb to 4.2% by 2030, nearly doubling from 2.0% in 2026.

The firm also forecasts that vehicles manufactured locally in Europe by Chinese marques will surge from approximately 90,000 units in 2026 to 1 million units by 2030.

Since the beginning of this year, several multinational carmakers have already handed over European assembly plants to Chinese brands.

Stellantis, for instance, has handed over its Spanish facility to a joint venture established with Leapmotor, whilst exploring the production of new energy vehicles (NEVs) for Dongfeng at its Rennes plant in France. In July, Ford announced a joint venture with Geely in Spain to build cars utilising the local Ford facility. In addition, Chery is currently in talks with Nissan, planning to leverage Nissan's Sunderland plant for contract manufacturing.

Data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) reveals that in the first half of this year, the market share of Chinese marques in Europe rose from virtually 0% in 2015 to around 9%, whereas European carmakers saw their combined share shrink from 72% to 65% over the same period.

Amid slumping sales volumes, legacy carmakers across Europe have been hit with widespread idle capacity. According to statistics from AlixPartners, the continent's top 15 plants alone face an estimated 2.5 million units in surplus capacity.

Compared with pouring billions of euros into building greenfield plants, most Chinese carmakers are far more inclined to acquire and retrofit existing local capacity.

Particularly with the European Union poised to roll out local production mandates, numerous Chinese automakers have stepped up their search for European manufacturing hubs this year.

Alfredo Altavilla, European advisor to BYD, noted recently that during his site visits across Europe, he frequently encounters fellow executives from rival Chinese carmakers scouting for production facilities as well.