Almost Like Twins: The Growth Paths of These Two Car Companies Are Strikingly Similar

「 Hyper Aion, BAIC New Energy 」

Author | Gong Chenyan

Editor | Li Guozheng

Produced by | Banning Studio (gbngzs)

Just entering November, some car companies released October sales figures.

The new energy vehicle penetration rate is rising, but the total market volume is shrinking. The CPCA expects that national passenger car terminal retail volume will decline by approximately 28% year-over-year in October, with new energy vehicle retail volume at about 1.07 million units and a penetration rate of about 66.9%.

The industry is releasing sales reports one after another, among which there are two relatively special brands.

First, both are ranked high on the growth list, which is unexpected.

In the South, GAC Hyper Aion's October sales were 42,400 vehicles, up 56.79% year-over-year. For 8 consecutive months, it achieved positive year-over-year growth, reaching a new high for the year, with growth in the first three quarters exceeding 56% year-over-year.

In the North, BAIC New Energy sold 32,500 vehicles in October, reaching an annual high. Cumulative sales for the first 10 months totaled 195,900 vehicles, up 37.9% year-over-year.

In that month, AITO, which is more well-known than them, delivered 22,100 vehicles, down 54.69% year-over-year; HIMA's "Five Alliances" combined delivered 33,500 vehicles, down more than half year-over-year.

Second, both share identical experiences.

Although walking their own paths, the development scripts of Hyper Aion and BAIC New Energy are surprisingly similar: both are local state-owned enterprises, both bet on new energy vehicles early, both reached sales peaks, both fell into troughs, both were labeled as "ride-hailing" vehicles, and both saw sales surge this year...

The ups and downs of the two reflect the turbulent and unpredictable nature of China's new energy vehicle industry.

▍01

Development curves almost overlapping

BAIC New Energy's starting point was 2009. That year, responding to the national "Ten Cities, Thousand Vehicles" demonstration project, the BAIC Group established this company. From 2013 to 2019, it won the domestic pure electric vehicle sales championship for 7 consecutive years. In 2018, via restructuring, it listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, becoming "China's first new energy vehicle stock".

Before BAIC New Energy's listing, more than 2,100 km away in Guangzhou, GAC Aion was born. Established in 2017, it caught the explosion window of the commercial fleet market. Sales broke through 270,000 units in 2022, and in the peak year of 2023, it sold 480,000 units. Industry circles once spread the saying that "one out of every 4 ride-hailing vehicles nationwide is an AION S"; its B-end orders once accounted for more than 60% of total sales.

Of course, the two companies captured the early benefits but suffered heavy falls.

In 2020, BAIC New Energy suddenly entered a dark era. Sales plummeted from 151,000 units in 2019 to 26,000 units. Even using sensational words like "cut in half" or "cliff-like drop" cannot describe this huge change.

In a media communication meeting in August this year, management candidly admitted while recalling that trough period that carrying the label of "synonym for ride-hailing" lasted for several years, with losses year after year.

Aion's highlight dimmed starting from 2024, when sales slid to 375,000 units; in 2025, it shrank to 290,000 units again, with monthly sales once dropping below 10,000 units; the main model AION S sold only 4,193 vehicles in March this year, down 44.33% year-over-year.

For Aion, the four words "King of Ride-Hailing" changed from praise to shackles. From online feedback, ordinary consumers buying cars are most afraid to hear words like "exclusive to ride-hailing".

Immediately afterwards, the two began reforms successively.

In 2024, BAIC New Energy welcomed a new management team, and the positioning of "entrepreneurial new state-owned enterprise" was written into the company system. It discarded past impetuous practices, eliminating short-term behaviors like packaging performance and pressuring dealers to stock up. The R&D sector was strengthened synchronously; Arcfox's product center was re-integrated, and R&D efficiency improved by nearly double.

In the South, in December 2025, GAC merged the flying-alone Hyper back into Aion, establishing the Hyper Aion BU. It introduced the IPD product development system and IPMS marketing system, integrated channels, and concentrated resources on mainstream models.

The effect of the reform was concentrated realization in 2026.

Regarding BAIC New Energy, the 150,000-yuan class SUV Alpha T7 of its Arcfox brand put Huawei Qiankun Intelligent Driving and CATL batteries into the 130,000 - 170,000 yuan price range. After a 21-day pre-sale, orders broke 60,000 units.

During the same period, the pure electric family sedan Beta S3 focusing on battery swapping, and Arcfox's first high-end MPV Wenda V9 scaled up in their respective price ranges; luxury hardcore SUV Stelato G9 opened reservations, with a pre-sale price starting at 439,800 yuan, raising the ceiling of the BAIC New Energy brand.

Regarding Aion, i60 is selling hot. This is a 100,000-yuan class dual power family SUV. Delivered 100,000 units 10 months after launch, setting the fastest record in the dual power SUV market segment. Sales exceeded 10,000 for 10 consecutive months, and orders broke 20,000 in the recent two months.

Both companies did the same thing—wash off the "ride-hailing" label and shift the core base from the B-end to the C-end.

Aion's C-end private user share rose from approximately 50% in 2023 to 80% currently. Public information shows that at the end of July this year, Arcfox's referral rate and showroom conversion rate both reached 50%, indicating that its owners recommend the brand to people around them.

Coincidentally, both brands encountered "Black Swan events" this year, just with different extents.

This summer, GAC Aion's existing fleet vehicles equipped with CALB 177Ah lithium iron phosphate batteries concentratedly experienced cell bulging, leakage, and insulation faults. Involved models were mainly the AION S series, also covering AION V and AION Y same-configuration models.

Media estimated that the scale of involved vehicles exceeded 210,000 units. The "Black Swan event" continued from July to October, online claims about recall processes changed repeatedly, and owner dissatisfaction was hard to calm. According to media reports, some vehicles encountered faults at 166,000 kilometers of driving mileage, others lasted until 320,000 kilometers before problems occurred; most cases fell between 150,000 and 300,000 kilometers.

Arcfox also once head-ached immensely. Multiple models continuously appeared on the Chezhiwang complaint ranking: Beta T1 once ranked first in complaints for its class for 5 consecutive months; after Alpha T7 delivery was full 3 days, online videos appeared where the first batch of owners took the car apart to pick faults.

▍02

One consolidates, one expands

In operations, Aion and BAIC New Energy respectively presented tightening and expansion characteristics.

For Aion, it is "tightening". For two years the Hyper brand operated independently, but sales showed no obvious improvement. Flagship SUV HL was bet on unlimited resources by GAC. When launched in April 2025, it vowed to benchmark AITO M8 and Li Auto L8, but the full year sales were less than 5,000 units, and monthly sales once dropped to single digits.

Forced, GAC Group took it back, merged it with Aion into one BU, then implemented channel integration, brand merging, and resource concentration, exchanging subtraction for efficiency.

This reform was backed by GAC's "Panyu Action", aiming to solve the common diseases of traditional car companies: cumbersome processes and long decision chains.

Aion brand abandoned the industry-popular "Vehicle sea tactics", dumping R&D, supply chain, and channel resources onto hero products like i60. Relying on the straightforward logic of "rather than letting 10 cars sell a few thousand each, better to let one car sell 100,000 units", i60 sustained volume steadily, verifying the feasibility from market insight, capacity delivery to user recognition.

In product layout, Aion uses N60 to hold the 100,000 - 150,000 yuan intelligent driving SUV market; uses i60's pure electric plus extended range dual power to cover family users.

For BAIC New Energy, it is "expansion".

Its Arcfox brand focuses on the mainstream market. Alpha, Beta, and Wenda product lines are positioned at 80,000 - 300,000 yuan. For example, Alpha T7 defends the 150,000-yuan class SUV market, Beta S3 enters the battery swapping market starting at 59,800 yuan, and Wenda V9 brings Arcfox into the 200,000-yuan-plus family and business market.

BAIC New Energy's Stelato brand, jointly created with Huawei, focuses on the high-end market. Among them, S9 and S9T stay steady as the sales champions of new energy sedans above 300,000 yuan; G9 orders broke 15,000 units in 72-hour pre-sale; in the second half of this year, V8 filled in the MPV category.

BAIC New Energy's dual brands do their own work. Official information shows that Stelato used 30% of sales volume in the first quarter to achieve more than 60% of BAIC New Energy's revenue.

The most obvious difference between the two is the premiumization path.

For Aion, after Hyper returned, it shares channels and systems with Aion, no longer expecting Hyper to fight alone as an independent brand.

Among them, Hyper GT Lite sank the price of the mid-to-large pure electric coupe to the 150,000 yuan range to regain presence first. For Hyper, this was almost the only choice. Independent operation for two years, Hyper verified the difficulty of fighting alone in the high-end market.

And BAIC New Energy handed the high-end brand Stelato to the Huawei ecosystem, by BAIC providing manufacturing heritage and supply chain, Huawei providing intelligence.

Overall, regarding premiumization, Hyper Aion self-consumes, while BAIC New Energy borrows strength.

This brings forth their growth rhythms. Aion's growth trend is accelerating: up 34.53% in August, 21.91% in September, surging to 56.79% in October, overall curve upward.

BAIC New Energy is in a gear shift period. Up 29.88% in August, 17.24% in September, and 6.42% in October, growth rate returning monthly. However, from performance, BAIC New Energy significantly reduced losses for 7 consecutive quarters, and operations significantly improved.

Obviously, both are rising, but the former grows in scale, the latter in structure.

Both are also accelerating overseas layout. Aion has a factory in Thailand, mainly facing the Southeast Asia market.

BAIC New Energy Chairman Liu Guanqiao once stated that in the second half of this year, it will push dual brands to compete globally and open up a second growth curve for overseas. Arcfox overseas monthly sales broke 1,000 in July, sales network already covering Middle East, South America, Africa. Next step is to shift from product export to system capability output.

On the other side of the coin, both still have a long list of unresolved questions.

For Aion, there are old debts to repay regarding battery issues, high-end premium capability of Hyper not yet landed, volume selling models proportion too high and overly dependent, per-vehicle value not yet fully established, etc.

BAIC New Energy needs to solve the speed gear shift problem: when the low base benefit is eaten up and Alpha T7 orders are digested, where is the next wave growth point?

Moreover, its profit improvement currently relies only on Stelato's structure contribution; scaling profitability has not yet been realized. Additionally, in Beta S3's order structure, battery swap versions account for 76%, indicating that model still depends on operational scenarios...

Such problem lists, both have a long string of them.

New car agitation for over ten years. Car companies lack not aggressive expanders nor conservative maintainers. What is rare is knowing where one is and what can be done.

"After these years of adjustment, we can say we have returned to the mainstream competition table of the new energy vehicle industry." Liu Guanqiao stated.

One South, One North. Hyper Aion and BAIC New Energy both need to think how far this wave of growth can go.