The Chessboard of the Auto Market's "Golden September and Silver October" Has Changed, How Should Car Companies Layout?

[Lead: Not boosting volume in the volume-boosting season, what will the Chinese auto market rely on to break through in the next stage?]

Author: Cai Yan

The chessboard of the auto market's "Golden September and Silver October" is undergoing change, "Golden September" lacks substance, and the situation for "Silver October" is also not optimistic.

Recently, data released by the CPCA showed that September domestic narrow-sense passenger car retail sales were 1.618 million units, a year-on-year decline of 28.0%, approximately 620,000 fewer units sold than the same period last year. Cumulative sales from January to September were 13.334 million units, a year-on-year drop of 21.7%. During the same period, dozens of new cars were launched since September, and nearly 30 car company executives reported new job moves within two months. GAC and FAW are planning equity binding, while Geely and Nio have successively completed charging and battery swapping capital cooperation. September sales data look unfavorable, but more noteworthy than sales figures are the actions taken by car companies during the peak season. Selling cars itself is yielding to "how to support the system with fewer repetitive investments".

△Nearly 30 car company executives reported new job moves within two months

No longer boosting volume, what are car companies busy with?

"Golden September" auto sales shrank. CPCA Secretary-General Cui Dongshu attributed this to the misalignment of the Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, the high base of panic buying stimulated by last year's subsidy phase-out, and the slowing of new car launches due to chip and memory price hikes. By energy source, September fuel vehicle retail sales were 534,000 units, a year-on-year decline of over 40%; pure fuel vehicles dropped 49%; new energy retail sales were 1.084 million units, a decrease of 16.7%, and the 67.0% penetration rate actually hit a new high. October also saw no improvement. The CPCA estimated on October 23 that full-month retail would be about 1.6 million units, with the year-on-year decline expanding to 28.9%. The year-on-year decline in five-week average daily retail moved from 25.0% to 33.3%. In past peak seasons, everyone rose; this year, fuel vehicles are sinking, and new energy vehicles cannot make up the total volume; however, the drop in production and wholesale was only in single digits. 917,000 units of exports absorbed the capacity, with pressure concentrated more on retail terminals.

△September domestic narrow-sense passenger car retail sales 1.618 million units, down 28.0% year-on-year

According to CNR statistics, since September, there have been over 50 newly launched, facelifted, or modified new cars. In September alone, 111 new cars and versions entered the market, ranging from 60,000 yuan commuter cars to 500,000 yuan flagship models. Supply-side firepower was fully open, demand-side did not keep up, and the "anti-involution" direction blocked the path of exchanging price for volume.

The manufacturer survey by the CPCA in early October was very straightforward: in the first three quarters, the annual goal completion rate for most car companies was less than 60%. Terminal profitability pressure made October inventory strategies tend towards stability. Looking at where the pressure lies: Zeekr's 300,000 unit target was 96.1% complete, the only one close to hitting the line; Chery 69%, Leapmotor 66.7%, Geely 64.8%, SAIC 62.9%, BYD 62.6%; Changan 51.7%, Great Wall 51.1%, Li Auto about 53%; XPeng about 47%, HIMA only about 36.5%. Zeekr passed because the base was small, while SAIC and BYD need to average 600,000 units per month in the fourth quarter.

Even the road of price cuts has narrowed: in the first three quarters, the operating income of the automotive manufacturing industry reached 8.04 trillion yuan, up 2.6% year-on-year, but operating costs grew by 3.8%, reaching 7.16 trillion yuan. The operating profit margin of the automotive manufacturing industry was only 3.33%, lower than the national average of 5.68% for industrial enterprises above designated size. Based on the profit scale of the same period last year, China's automotive manufacturing industry earned approximately 79 billion yuan less year-on-year in the first three quarters this year.

△Many newly launched, facelifted, or modified new cars since September

Money is tight, and the front end cannot generate incremental volume, so the actions of leading car companies have focused on organization and capital. According to incomplete statistics, nearly 30 car company executives reported new job moves in the last two months, involving 12 car companies and 13 brands. On October 16, China Changan and Changan Automobile jointly announced that Zhu Rong would no longer concurrently serve as the chairman of the listed company, with Zhao Fei taking over, further clarifying the management boundary between the group and the listed company; in late September, Changan internally established an Avatr and Deepal coordination organization to coordinate middle and back-end resource sharing, Deng Chenghao was promoted to Executive Vice President, and the two brands' front ends remain independent. The movement on the capital side was greater: GAC Group disclosed a restructuring plan on September 28, proposing to issue shares at 5.75 yuan per share to purchase 50% equity of FAW Toyota; on October 8, China FAW, Toyota Motor, and GAC Group signed a new strategic cooperation framework agreement, subject to audit, valuation, and regulatory approval. According to the plan, after the transaction, FAW Toyota will still operate independently, FAW will become an important strategic shareholder of GAC, and North and South Toyota will jointly undertake functions such as R&D, procurement, production, and sales in the next stage. On September 28, Geely Holding invested in Nio Energy with 100% equity of Yiyi Interconnect plus 640 million yuan cash; after the transaction, it holds 30% equity; Nio simultaneously invested in Geely's Hanran Energy 10%, and both sides' charging and battery swapping networks will be fully interconnected.

△China FAW, Toyota Motor, and GAC Group sign new strategic cooperation framework agreement

Next Stage, Relying on What to Break Through?

The path to breaking through is not at the new car launch event, but in three tables: export reports, policy documents, and car company organizational charts. Looking at export data. September passenger car exports were 917,000 units, up 73.7% year-on-year, with the proportion of manufacturer sales rising from 19% to 36%. New energy exports were 558,000 units, up 163.5%; the proportion of top car companies overseas is generally over 30%, going overseas has changed from a bonus item to the basic foundation. Chery has handed over domestic and overseas to the same person to manage, with Executive Vice President Zhang Guibing directly managing Chery Brand's domestic business group, while also concurrently serving as General Manager of the International Business Group. Domestic and foreign businesses have merged from two lines into "one game plan" before, and the organizational structure follows the profit source.

But going overseas is not a safe haven. The EU's anti-subsidy tax on pure electric vehicles is still in place, and hybrid models will be bound by total volume constraints. These trade frictions force Chinese car companies to accelerate localization overseas: Changan has already established 8 sales subsidiaries in Europe, planning for 180,000 units capacity by 2028; BYD took over Ford's Camaçari plant in Brazil; Great Wall acquired GM's Rayong plant in Thailand.

From the perspective of technology and policy, in September 2026, nine departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "15th Five-Year Plan". By 2030, the sales proportion of new energy passenger cars and commercial vehicles should reach 70% and 40%. Policy has shifted from encouraging production expansion and volume boosting to supporting the strong and eliminating inferior; in terms of consumption, new energy sales in the first three quarters were 12.472 million units, up 11.1%. Users' questions have shifted from range and screen count to whether city navigation will exit frequently and whether narrow parking spaces can be parked in one go. Finally, it is to let the reorganized organizations truly mesh: North and South Toyota need to connect R&D to sales, moving two teams and two channels; Changan AD coordination organization takes over the middle and back offices of the two brands, "front end fully independent" depends on how price brackets are staggered; after Geely and Nio cross-shareholding, they first connect the charging and battery swapping network. In 2025, industry capacity was about 48.7 million units, actual sales 26.938 million units, utilization rate 59%. It will only return to 70.8% in Q2 2026, still below the 75% health line—capacity hasn't cleared, volume boosting in the peak season is just storing ammunition for the next round of price wars.

△Geely and Nio connect charging and battery swapping network after cross-shareholding

Comment

"Golden September" of 2026 did not bring a sales recovery, but brought a more important signal: the Chinese auto market is moving from the stage of "everyone can sit at the table" to the stage of "who has the qualification to stay". Changing personnel, merging, and allying are not footnotes of recession, but the replacement of scale by efficiency under stock competition. When the price war cannot work, the real competition has just begun — it is not about who dares to lower prices more, but who can run the system lighter, faster, and more irreplaceable within a 3.33% profit margin.

(This article is original from "He Yan Auto View", reproduction without authorization is prohibited.)