July Sales Hit 200,000 Units, Why Is Changan Facing Even More Difficulties

Changan's July performance report, which stabilized the baseline of 200,000 units, still fails to bring any sense of ease.

On August 2nd, Changan Automobile disclosed July delivery data.The group delivered 207,100 units that month, roughly flat compared to the same period last year.Among them, overseas deliveries reached 82,300 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 79.1%, with six consecutive months of positive growth; New energy deliveries hit 96,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 28.8%, with penetration rate approaching 47%. The remaining domestic fuel vehicle segment is quietly shrinking.

Looking back at the first half of the year, sales-wise, cumulative deliveries reached 1.1956 million units, with only 36.2% completion of the annual target of 3.3 million units. In the past three years, the proportion of first-half sales remained stable above 46%, but this year it is at least 10 percentage points lower. For the remaining 5 months, an average of 420,000 units must be sold monthly to meet the target. Compared to the peak season of the second half of 2025, Changan's single-month peak was only around 280,000 units. This means the monthly average target for the second half needs to be nearly 50% higher than the best-selling month of last year to meet the target.

On the profit side, the attributable net profit for shareholders in the first half is expected to be between 740 million and 970 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 58% to 68%; the net profit from the main business dropped significantly by 78% to 85%, remaining only between 230 million and 330 million yuan. Calculated by total sales volume, the non-deductible net profit per car sold is less than 30 yuan.

Changan officials attribute the reasons to exchange rate losses and raw material price hikes, but the structure is also dragging them down.

The signal on the profit side is even heavier. The earnings forecast shows that the attributable net profit for shareholders in the first half is expected to be between 740 million and 970 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 58% to 68%; the net profit from the main business dropped significantly by 78% to 85%, remaining only between 230 million and 330 million yuan. Calculated by total sales volume, the non-deductible net profit per car sold is less than 30 yuan. Changan officials attribute the reasons to exchange rate losses and raw material price hikes, but the structure is also dragging them down.

First, the new energy sector's growth rate is lower than the industry average.In the first half of the year, new energy deliveries were 456,000 units, a year-on-year increase of only 5.2%. During the same period, Geely Auto's new energy sales increased by 9.6% year-on-year, Chery Auto's new energy sales increased by 34.2% year-on-year, while Changan clearly lagged behind. Looking at the product structure, the Qiyuan brand relies heavily on the Q05 model, selling 72,000 units in half a year, while other models such as Q07, A07, E07, etc., saw declining sales with negligible contributions; Avatr accumulated deliveries of less than 28,000 units in the first half of the year, halving year-on-year, losing 13.2 billion yuan over the four years from 2022 to 2025, and in the first half of 2026 no car model achieved monthly sales over 10,000; Deepal relies on S05 and L06, with the high-end SUV Deepal S09 monthly sales dropping to over 200 units.

Secondly, there is pressure on the fuel vehicle side.The CS75 fuel version's sales in the first half of the year dropped by more than 30%. Although the Eado managed to maintain its position on the sedan list, it relied on continuous price cuts. Several older models saw sales drop to zero. Changan actively stopped production of the Lumin priced below 50,000 yuan, an entry and exit resulting in a gap of 70,000 units.

Fortunately, the overseas side was a bright spot in the first half of the year. The situation of domestic fuel vehicle contraction and weak new energy growth is difficult to fully support with overseas legs alone. Overseas deliveries in the first half of the year reached 402,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 35.1%. Compared to Changan's own announced 2026 overseas annual sales target, the completion rate has already exceeded 53%. However, the situation of domestic fuel vehicle contraction and weak new energy growth is difficult to support solely by overseas markets.

Currently, Changan has dispatched four vice-president level executives to lead the overseas expansion. Factories in Thailand and Brazil have been put into production successively. In the second half of the year, models such as Qiyuan Q05 and Deepal S05 will be launched in multiple locations in Southeast Asia and Europe. However, overseas markets are still in the investment phase of channels and capacity, short-term profit returns are limited, and exchange rate fluctuations continue to erode book data.

Facing multiple pressures such as weak domestic business and unbalanced multi-brand operations, Changan launched the most drastic reform in recent years in April. Deepal and Avatr backend integration aims to reduce R&D and supply chain costs by 20% to 30%. The overall product lineup was cut from 63 models to 36 models, no longer pursuing scale without profit.

As Tan Benhong, Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee and Director of China Changan Automobile Group Co., Ltd., stated frankly at the mid-year communication meeting:"We have not yet fully mastered the operational capabilities of multiple brands."

The variables for the second half lie in the new vehicles.

Deepal S05 will be launched on August 6th, with a pre-sale price of 119,900 to 151,900 yuan, equipped with Tianshu Pilot + LiDAR; Changan Qiyuan Q06 comes standard with the Tianshu Pilot Intelligent Driving system across all trims, planned for launch in September, focusing on the 200,000 yuan class medium-large SUV market; Avatr 07L is positioned as a smart beauty family luxury SUV, expected to launch in the third quarter, providing both extended-range and pure electric dual power, the first batch equipped with Huawei Qiankun ADS 5 intelligent driving system, targeting the family market above 220,000 yuan.

A new vehicle list scheduled until the end of the year carries all of Changan's expectations for shifting from stability maintenance to an offensive push. Whether the integration can release system capabilities and whether the new vehicles can become blockbusters are the two key questions to break the stagnation in the second half of the year.

Source: Car Observation