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你睇過印度嘅馬路嗎？
我喺網上見過。
畫面通常係咁，一輛轎車俾牛尾擋住，旁邊仲有亂竄嘅摩托，甚至周圍仲有賣奶茶嘅小夥，嗰叫一個“乾淨又衛生”。
然而，喺呢啲睇完好多人覺得生理不適嘅地方，豐田、鈴木、本田等日本車廠，卻決定將籌碼押落印度。
據印度“品牌質量基金會”網站顯示，三家車廠將喺印度投資近110 億美元建廠、提產能、搞出口。
對此有网友表示，三家日本車廠係咪錢多到無處花？
事實上，佢哋唔係錢多到花唔完，亦唔係被印度嘅咖哩蒙蔽咗心竅，呢啲日本車廠高層遠比我哋清醒。
而家嘅日系車，營業額、市場份額都喺下滑，原材料成本仲係升得飛起，打開世界地圖，搵一個能夠容納產能、拓充份額、競爭溫和嘅市場，唔係咁容易嘅事。
所以，唔係日本車廠選擇咗印度，而係因為冇得揀。
日本車廠之痛
曾經嘅日系車，嗰時妥妥係人哋個仔。
你問下十幾年前開過日系車嘅老司機，一提起日系車，幾乎就冇唔豎大拇指嘅，價錢平、省油、耐用又抵撞……
甚至好多日系車，仲要加價購買，但邊個諗到，呢個鐵打嘅江山，短短幾年時間就俾佢哋打得找唔著北。
隨著新能源汽車浪潮嚟到，電動化、智能化變成好多自主車廠“彎道超車”嘅目標，依托於中國強大嘅新能源汽車產業鏈優勢同車廠自身對研發、技術嘅堅持，中國自主品牌迅速實現咗“彎道超車”。
曾經被人吐槽嘅國產車，而家喺馬路越來越多人，甚至份額超越咗合資。
根據乘聯會嘅數據，喺2026 年4 月，自主品牌嘅份額已經高達62.5%，遠超日系嘅13.1%。
要知道，中國汽車市場係全球最大嘅汽車市場，喺中國市場失速，就相當於丟咗一塊巨大嘅蛋糕。
同時，中國市場近年嚟嘅主旋律依舊係價格戰，捲配置、捲價格、捲服務已經成為一種常態，亦對日系車嘅利潤產生咗巨大嘅影響。
除咗中國，日系車喺美國過得亦唔太好。
2025 年 1 月 20 日，特朗普宣誓就職第 47 任美國總統，自此開啟咗一連串搞搞震，其中就包括以國家安全為理由徵收額外嘅汽車關稅，導致進口日本汽車嘅關稅稅率一度高達 27.5%，雖然後嚟有所降低，但亦遠高於最初嘅稅率。
呢個操作，直接導致七大日本車廠喺2025 財政年度嘅關稅損失超2 萬億日元。
再睇日本本土，其實亦唔容易。
中東地緣衝突導致霍爾木茲海峽航運受阻，運輸成本、原材料成本暴漲，日本車廠都有苦難言。
高管們看著報表，背後發涼，只能尋找全新嘅增長曲線。
所以，日本車廠唔係愛上印度，係冇地方去。
揀選印度嘅深思熟慮
咁，印度點解咁有魔力，先至令日本車廠重資投入呢？
第一個優勢就係大。喺2025 年，印度汽車市場取得咗551.7 萬輛嘅新車銷量，同比增長 6%，刷新咗歷史紀錄，位居全球第三大汽車市場，已经连续四年超越日本，僅次於中國同美國。
呢個含金量唔使多講啦，而印度取得呢一成績，主要係因為印度一直喺推動減稅政策，促進消費，這導致國內消費意願出現咗明顯增強。
第二個優點係近，就係離日系車賣得動嘅地方近，如非洲等其他地區。
所以，印度對於日本車廠，更似一個建喺十字路口中央嘅便利店，你唔使將車分別運去八個國家，只需要喺印度呢站造好，然後一船一船甩去，就能削減唔少成本。
《日本經濟新聞》亦認為，印度有望轉變為佢哋全球嘅汽車供應中心。
第三個優點係穩。要知道，日系車嘅優勢就係燃油車，畢竟引擎、變速箱、底盤三大件，佢哋已經玩咗好多年，技術積累喺全球都係數一數二。
但係中國汽車市場已經全力推動電動化、智能化發展，導致日系車嘅優勢越來越弱，根本無法發揮出嚟，但印度唔一樣，佢擁有充電樁少、電動化進程緩慢嘅特點，印度老百姓買車，都仲係盯住平、省油、易修，而呢三點正係日系車嘅老本行。
尤其係鈴木，一直係印度汽車市場嘅常青樹，幾乎年年穩坐暢銷車型寶座，口碑好，勝過任何廣告。
所以，日本車廠大力佈局印度市場，顯然是經過深思熟慮嘅。
但，印度市場真係咁好混咩？
難啃嘅印度市場
當然，印度亦唔係完美得似個香口格，佢嘅缺點同佢嘅優點一樣明顯，而且每一個都夠日本車廠喝一壺。
先講電動化，冇錯，眼睇下印度充電樁少、電動車賣唔動，確實係日系燃油車嘅避風港。但你得諗諗，呢個“避風港”能避幾耐？
印度此前可係喊出咗 2030 年電動車佔新車 30% 嘅口號，雖然聽落似吹水，但抵唔住人哋真補錢、真建充電站。
試諗下，萬一有日印度突然開竅，開始大力推動電動化、搞基建，充電樁似雨後春筍咁冒出來，嗰日系車唔就傻眼？
呢唔係泰國市場嘅翻版咩？
當年日系車喺泰國都係躺贏，整個東南亞市場，都被稱為日系車嘅後花園，結果泰國率先推動電動化，中國電動車一嚟，直接就成咗香口格，再睇日系車，喺泰國嘅市場份額嘩嘩嚟咗落。
如果印度係電動化一加速，歷史大概率會重演，而而家呢次，日系車連逃嘅地方都快冇咗，點樣預防，將成為日本車廠嘅首要問題。
再講政策，印度嘅政策就似一鍋咖哩，你永遠唔知下一口食到係雞肉定係馬鈴薯。
呢個魔幻嘅國家，今日係低關稅鼓勵建廠，明日就可能罰你一筆巨款，更令人頭痛嘅係強制合資，外國車廠想喺印度賣車，要搵本地夥伴搭檔，等你工廠建好咗、供應鏈搭完咗，印度直接背刺你，到嗰陣無論係加錢定撤資，換嚟嘅都係心痛。
所以你看，印度呢個市場，就好似一個睇落好甜嘅芒果，咬落去第一口仲行，再啃幾口就摸著硬核。
日系車而家嘅算盤係，趁住核都未硌牙，趕緊多啃幾口，但核遲早會硌到，只係唔知係邊一日。
尾聲
日系車呢趟印度之旅，唔係去旅遊，係去搵食。
中國同東南亞嘅飯桌更擁擠，生產、運輸嘅成本又提高咗，放眼全球，就印度呢口鍋仲冒住熱氣，哪怕入面煮嘅係咖哩味嘅石頭，都要硬著頭皮啃落去。
日本車廠想擴大市場，印度想嘅係拉動經濟、解決就業，雙方都有各自嘅心思。
至於結局係日系車喺印度重新封神，定係好似當年嘅部分友商一樣灰溜溜走人，那就唔知啦。
但無論點樣，呢場戲先至開始，我哋慢慢睇就得啦。
反正印度嘅故事，從來唔會悶。
港交所網站掛出一咗一份熟悉嘅招股書。
5 月 28 日，繼去年 10 月首次遞表失效後，智能駕駛解決方案提供商蘇州天瞳威視電子科技股份有限公司（天瞳威視）再次向港股主板發起重衝，由匯豐及華泰國際聯席保薦。
喺智能駕駛賽道從「講故事」轉向「拼量產」嘅 2026 年，天瞳威視嘅二次遞表唔單止係一次資本試探，更係一場關於中國智駕供應商生存現狀嘅集中檢閱。
呢間被認為係「算力效率派」代表嘅公司，一邊連住從采埃孚到上汽、北汽嘅豪華產業資本陣營，一邊卻面臨住現金流緊繃、海外明顯回落嘅現實困境。喺呢場 IPO 嘅博弈中，光鮮同陣痛並存。
01
邊個係「天瞳威視」？
天瞳威視嘅創辦人王曦係一位典型嘅「回國」技術派。佢畢業於北京航空航天大學，後喺英國雷丁大學攻讀計算機科學博士學位。
喺決定創業之前，王曦曾經喺汽車零部件供應商天合汽車（TRW）及采埃孚擔任算法工程師同技術負責人，深度參與咗早期 ADAS 系統嘅開發。
2016 年，王曦捕捉到國內汽車智能化嘅風口，回國喺蘇州創立咗天瞳威視，定位係「以軟件算法驅動智能駕駛」嘅本土解決方案提供商。
公司嘅名字「天瞳」寓意「天之眼」，意在打造車輛感知萬物嘅視覺中樞。佢從最初嘅視覺感知算法起步，逐步擴展至行泊一體域控制器、L4 級自動駕駛系統等軟硬件結合嘅整體方案。
天瞳威視融資情況。資料來源：企查查
成立後不久，天瞳威視就獲得德聯資本、盛世投資嘅天使輪融資。此後十年時間，天瞳威視累計完成咗超過 10 輪融資，融資總額近 10 億元。
從招股書披露嘅股權結構嚟睇，天瞳威視構建咗深度綁定嘅「產業 + 資本」生態圈。
一方面，產業夥伴站台，全球汽車零部件巨頭采埃孚唔單止係其 C 輪領投方，亦係其戰略合作夥伴，持有天瞳威視 6.93% 嘅股份，位列第四大股東；國內方面，上汽集團通過上汽北美產投持股，北汽集團通過北汽產投佈局其中，地平線同商湯科技亦係戰略投資者。
另一方面，地方國資護航，唐山機器人基金、吳中金控等國資背景基金喺 D 輪及 D+ 輪入場，提供咗約 5.23 億元嘅資金支持。
截至最後實際可行日期股權架構
截至目前，王曦透過直接持股同員工持股平台合共控制公司約 40.84% 嘅權益，依然保持住對公司嘅控制權。
02
「兩條腿」行路
天瞳威視喺業務佈局上採取咗「雙軌並行」嘅策略。
喺 L2-L2+ 級輔助駕駛領域，天瞳威視嘅選擇非常務實。佢並冇盲目追逐算力堆疊嘅「軍備競賽」，而係走咗一條高性價比路線。
作為典型嘅視覺派智駕供應商，佢喺 L2 量產方案上以視覺感知為主，融合毫米波雷達同超聲波雷達，能夠喺較低算力平台上實現高級功能。例如，基於地平線 J6B 芯片（約 20TOPS）嘅方案即可支持行泊一體、高速 NOA。
呢種打法擊中咗 10 萬 -20 萬級主流車款對成本敏感嘅痛點。根據灼識諮詢嘅數據，按 2024 年裝機量計，天瞳威視係中國第二大同時提供行車同泊車解決方案嘅以軟件為核心嘅 L2-L2+ 級方案提供商，市場份額為 14.3%。
2024 年中國具備行泊一體能力嘅以軟件為核心供應商格局
截至最後實際可行日期，天瞳威視獲得 23 個汽車品牌嘅 198 款車款嘅 L2-L2+ 級解決方案定點函，並實現 6 個汽車品牌嘅 105 款車款嘅量產；獲得定點函嘅 198 款車款中有 87 款覆蓋海外市場，其中 59 款已實現量產。
但值得注意嘅係，L2-L2+ 市場正在經歷劇烈嘅「紅海化」。
一方面，經緯恆潤、福瑞泰克等本土 Tier1 正在加速追趕；另一方面，部分頭部車廠開始將低階智駕方案從外購轉為內部集成。
天瞳威視能否維持佢喺「性價比方案」領域嘅領先地位，取決於佢能否持續保持算法對低算力平台嘅優化能力，而這需要喺研發投入上持續加碼。
喺高級 L4 級自動駕駛領域，天瞳威視更多扮演「先鋒」角色。這亦係佢近兩年增長最快嘅板塊。
早在 2019 年，佢就參與咗上海洋山港嘅 5G 智能重卡項目。目前佢嘅 L4 方案覆蓋 Robobus、Robotaxi 同 Robotruck。其中，Robobus 係佢最具代表性嘅產品線，已喺蘇州、天津等城市嘅公開道路投入常態化試營運。
2025 年，天瞳威視從 L4 級解決方案產生收入 3.75 億元，佔公司總收入嘅 68% 以上，大部分收入來自 L4 級軟件解決方案。
然而，硬幣嘅另一面係商業化嘅曲折。雖然 L4 業務營收暴增，但佢嘅交付形態目前以「軟硬件一體解決方案」為主，呢種模式本質上接近「項目制交付」或「小規模車隊部署」，與 L2 業務中「純軟件授權 + 白盒交付」嘅高毛利、大規模複製邏輯存在顯著差異。
呢就直接導致 L4 業務毛利率嘅大幅波動：喺部分自研硬件佔比较高嘅項目中，毛利率一度低至 15%。
截至遞表日，公司雖手握超 10 億元嘅 L4 意向訂單，涵蓋 2500 架車，但呢啲訂單預計要喺未來三至五年內先會陸續交付，短期內對現金流嘅改善作用有限。
此外，天瞳威視仲有部分應收來自工程服務，主要涉及道路測試、數據收集支援及數據標註服務以及公司嘅專有工具鏈。
03
財務嘅雙面鏡
招股書嘅財務部分，展現咗智駕行業最真實嘅「B 面」：規模同虧損嘅極限拉扯，同埋賬面現金同營運消耗之間嘅緊張博弈。
營收高增長，但結構劇烈波動。
財務數據顯示，公司嘅營收呈現爆發式增長，從 2022 年嘅 1.72 億元增長至 2024 年嘅 4.83 億元，複合年增長率高達 67.7%。2025 年全年營收進一步增長至 5.5 億元。
但收入結構嘅變化明顯。2023 年，公司依賴 L2-L2+ 業務，佔比 90.2%；去到 2024 年，L4 業務佔比升至 50.2%；2025 年，L4 業務佔比進一步拉高至 68%。呢種「斷崖式」嘅結構切換，雖然證明佢 L4 技術搵到咗落地場景，但亦令市場質疑佢 L2 業務係咪已觸及天花板。
毛利率同純利潤嘅背離，呢係天瞳威視面臨嘅最大挑戰。
從毛利睇，整體毛利率喺 30% 左右徘徊，喺呢個技術密集型嘅智駕行業屬於中等水平。但細拆睇嚟，L2-L2+ 業務嘅毛利率通常能維持喺 40% 以上，純軟件授權模式，而 L4 業務嘅毛利率則因「軟硬件一體」交付中硬件佔比提高而被顯著拉低。
從純利潤睇，雖然表面虧損額較大，2024 年虧損 4.63 億、2025 年虧損約 2 億，呢度包含大量因優先股公平值變動帶來嘅「紙面虧損」。剔除呢個因素後嘅經調整純利潤更能反映公司嘅真實經營狀況：2024 年已收窄至 -438 萬元，但 2025 年並未如市場預期實現轉正，而係錄得約 -1086 萬元，虧損較 2024 年有所擴大。
呢個背後有一個不可回避嘅關鍵前提：調整後嘅「減虧」乃至「接近盈虧平衡」，係喺公司持續壓縮研發投入嘅基礎上實現嘅，研發費用從 2024 年嘅 1.17 億元降至 2025 年嘅 9231 萬元，研發費用率從 2024 年嘅 24.3% 進一步降至 16.8%，而 2022 年呢個數字曾高達 108.7%。對於一家科技公司嚟講，研發強度嘅「退坡」是否會影響未來嘅技術護城河，係一個潛在風險點。
現金流持續告急，最令人擔憂嘅信號。
根據最新招股書，截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，公司賬上嘅現金及現金等价物為 2.35 億元，較 2025 年 6 月 30 日嘅 3.74 億元淨減少 1.39 億元，現金消耗速度較快。
更值得警惕嘅係經營現金流由正轉負且缺口持續擴大嘅趨勢。2023 年，公司經營活動現金流淨額為正向流入 1.15 億元，但 2024 年迅速轉為淨流出 1.89 億元，2025 年進一步惡化至淨流出 2.93 億元。
與此同時，應收賬款周轉急劇惡化。公司嘅貿易應收款項從 2023 年嘅 0.89 億元升至 2025 年嘅 5.48 億元，三年增長超過五倍，而同期營收增幅僅約 2.7 倍。
更令人擔憂嘅係應收款項周轉天數從 2023 年嘅 191 天同 2024 年嘅 166 天，到 2025 年驟升至 300 天，意味著公司從完成交付到收回款項平均需要接近一年時間。呢相當於變相為客戶提供長期無息墊資，喺資金本就緊張嘅情況下進一步加劇咗流動性壓力。
此外，雖然天瞳威視係首家出海嘅中國智駕軟件供應商，但 2025 年佢嘅海外業務遭遇咗明顯回落。2023 年天瞳威視海外收入為 1.27 億元，佔總營收比重達到 62.2%；到 2025 年海外收入降至 1100 萬元，佔比僅 2.0%。
喺而家全球地緣政治複雜、部分國家對智能汽車數據監管趨嚴嘅背景下，為佢嘅全球化故事增添咗一絲不確定性。
04
結語
天瞳威視嘅二次闖關，係智能駕駛行業進入「淘汰賽」階段嘅一個縮影。
從好嘅方面睇，佢踩準咗 L2 性價比同 L4 場景化落地嘅雙重節奏，且經調整純利潤喺特定口徑下已接近盈虧平衡，呢啲都畀投資者提供咗「有亮點可講」嘅故事線。
但從風險嘅角度睇，情況遠比首次遞表時更為嚴峻。業務重心嘅急速漂移、L4 業務商業化初期嘅盈利磨難、研發投入嘅被動收縮，呢啲此前就已存在嘅問題並未緩解。
天瞳威視 L4 級智能巴士
而真正令此次 IPO 帶「求生」色彩嘅，係現金流數據嘅實質性惡化：2.35 億元嘅賬面現金，面對每年近 3 億元嘅经营性現金淨流出，安全邊際已不足一年。疊加 300 天嘅應收賬款周轉天數，意味著公司每交付一筆訂單，都要墊付近一年嘅資金成本。
換言之，天瞳威視正處喺一個危險嘅財務窗口期：賬上嘅錢僅夠維持唔足一年嘅正常運作，而 L4 業務嘅大規模交付同回款卻需要更長時間。喺呢個智駕資本熱潮退去、一級市場融資邊際收緊嘅時刻，公司已冇太多等待嘅餘地。
首次遞表失效後僅隔半年便再次衝擊港股，對天瞳威視而言，與其話係戰略選擇，唔如話係現金倒逼下嘅必然之舉。
你睇過印度嘅馬路嗎？
我喺網上見過。
畫面通常係咁，一輛轎車俾牛尾擋住，旁邊仲有亂竄嘅摩托，甚至周圍仲有賣奶茶嘅小夥，嗰叫一個“乾淨又衛生”。
然而，喺呢啲睇完好多人覺得生理不適嘅地方，豐田、鈴木、本田等日本車廠，卻決定將籌碼押落印度。
據印度“品牌質量基金會”網站顯示，三家車廠將喺印度投資近110 億美元建廠、提產能、搞出口。
對此有网友表示，三家日本車廠係咪錢多到無處花？
事實上，佢哋唔係錢多到花唔完，亦唔係被印度嘅咖哩蒙蔽咗心竅，呢啲日本車廠高層遠比我哋清醒。
而家嘅日系車，營業額、市場份額都喺下滑，原材料成本仲係升得飛起，打開世界地圖，搵一個能夠容納產能、拓充份額、競爭溫和嘅市場，唔係咁容易嘅事。
所以，唔係日本車廠選擇咗印度，而係因為冇得揀。
日本車廠之痛
曾經嘅日系車，嗰時妥妥係人哋個仔。
你問下十幾年前開過日系車嘅老司機，一提起日系車，幾乎就冇唔豎大拇指嘅，價錢平、省油、耐用又抵撞……
甚至好多日系車，仲要加價購買，但邊個諗到，呢個鐵打嘅江山，短短幾年時間就俾佢哋打得找唔著北。
隨著新能源汽車浪潮嚟到，電動化、智能化變成好多自主車廠“彎道超車”嘅目標，依托於中國強大嘅新能源汽車產業鏈優勢同車廠自身對研發、技術嘅堅持，中國自主品牌迅速實現咗“彎道超車”。
曾經被人吐槽嘅國產車，而家喺馬路越來越多人，甚至份額超越咗合資。
根據乘聯會嘅數據，喺2026 年4 月，自主品牌嘅份額已經高達62.5%，遠超日系嘅13.1%。
要知道，中國汽車市場係全球最大嘅汽車市場，喺中國市場失速，就相當於丟咗一塊巨大嘅蛋糕。
同時，中國市場近年嚟嘅主旋律依舊係價格戰，捲配置、捲價格、捲服務已經成為一種常態，亦對日系車嘅利潤產生咗巨大嘅影響。
除咗中國，日系車喺美國過得亦唔太好。
2025 年 1 月 20 日，特朗普宣誓就職第 47 任美國總統，自此開啟咗一連串搞搞震，其中就包括以國家安全為理由徵收額外嘅汽車關稅，導致進口日本汽車嘅關稅稅率一度高達 27.5%，雖然後嚟有所降低，但亦遠高於最初嘅稅率。
呢個操作，直接導致七大日本車廠喺2025 財政年度嘅關稅損失超2 萬億日元。
再睇日本本土，其實亦唔容易。
中東地緣衝突導致霍爾木茲海峽航運受阻，運輸成本、原材料成本暴漲，日本車廠都有苦難言。
高管們看著報表，背後發涼，只能尋找全新嘅增長曲線。
所以，日本車廠唔係愛上印度，係冇地方去。
揀選印度嘅深思熟慮
咁，印度點解咁有魔力，先至令日本車廠重資投入呢？
第一個優勢就係大。喺2025 年，印度汽車市場取得咗551.7 萬輛嘅新車銷量，同比增長 6%，刷新咗歷史紀錄，位居全球第三大汽車市場，已经连续四年超越日本，僅次於中國同美國。
呢個含金量唔使多講啦，而印度取得呢一成績，主要係因為印度一直喺推動減稅政策，促進消費，這導致國內消費意願出現咗明顯增強。
第二個優點係近，就係離日系車賣得動嘅地方近，如非洲等其他地區。
所以，印度對於日本車廠，更似一個建喺十字路口中央嘅便利店，你唔使將車分別運去八個國家，只需要喺印度呢站造好，然後一船一船甩去，就能削減唔少成本。
《日本經濟新聞》亦認為，印度有望轉變為佢哋全球嘅汽車供應中心。
第三個優點係穩。要知道，日系車嘅優勢就係燃油車，畢竟引擎、變速箱、底盤三大件，佢哋已經玩咗好多年，技術積累喺全球都係數一數二。
但係中國汽車市場已經全力推動電動化、智能化發展，導致日系車嘅優勢越來越弱，根本無法發揮出嚟，但印度唔一樣，佢擁有充電樁少、電動化進程緩慢嘅特點，印度老百姓買車，都仲係盯住平、省油、易修，而呢三點正係日系車嘅老本行。
尤其係鈴木，一直係印度汽車市場嘅常青樹，幾乎年年穩坐暢銷車型寶座，口碑好，勝過任何廣告。
所以，日本車廠大力佈局印度市場，顯然是經過深思熟慮嘅。
但，印度市場真係咁好混咩？
難啃嘅印度市場
當然，印度亦唔係完美得似個香口格，佢嘅缺點同佢嘅優點一樣明顯，而且每一個都夠日本車廠喝一壺。
先講電動化，冇錯，眼睇下印度充電樁少、電動車賣唔動，確實係日系燃油車嘅避風港。但你得諗諗，呢個“避風港”能避幾耐？
印度此前可係喊出咗 2030 年電動車佔新車 30% 嘅口號，雖然聽落似吹水，但抵唔住人哋真補錢、真建充電站。
試諗下，萬一有日印度突然開竅，開始大力推動電動化、搞基建，充電樁似雨後春筍咁冒出來，嗰日系車唔就傻眼？
呢唔係泰國市場嘅翻版咩？
當年日系車喺泰國都係躺贏，整個東南亞市場，都被稱為日系車嘅後花園，結果泰國率先推動電動化，中國電動車一嚟，直接就成咗香口格，再睇日系車，喺泰國嘅市場份額嘩嘩嚟咗落。
如果印度係電動化一加速，歷史大概率會重演，而而家呢次，日系車連逃嘅地方都快冇咗，點樣預防，將成為日本車廠嘅首要問題。
再講政策，印度嘅政策就似一鍋咖哩，你永遠唔知下一口食到係雞肉定係馬鈴薯。
呢個魔幻嘅國家，今日係低關稅鼓勵建廠，明日就可能罰你一筆巨款，更令人頭痛嘅係強制合資，外國車廠想喺印度賣車，要搵本地夥伴搭檔，等你工廠建好咗、供應鏈搭完咗，印度直接背刺你，到嗰陣無論係加錢定撤資，換嚟嘅都係心痛。
所以你看，印度呢個市場，就好似一個睇落好甜嘅芒果，咬落去第一口仲行，再啃幾口就摸著硬核。
日系車而家嘅算盤係，趁住核都未硌牙，趕緊多啃幾口，但核遲早會硌到，只係唔知係邊一日。
尾聲
日系車呢趟印度之旅，唔係去旅遊，係去搵食。
中國同東南亞嘅飯桌更擁擠，生產、運輸嘅成本又提高咗，放眼全球，就印度呢口鍋仲冒住熱氣，哪怕入面煮嘅係咖哩味嘅石頭，都要硬著頭皮啃落去。
日本車廠想擴大市場，印度想嘅係拉動經濟、解決就業，雙方都有各自嘅心思。
至於結局係日系車喺印度重新封神，定係好似當年嘅部分友商一樣灰溜溜走人，那就唔知啦。
但無論點樣，呢場戲先至開始，我哋慢慢睇就得啦。
反正印度嘅故事，從來唔會悶。
BYD officially released the May 2026 production and sales flash report, with new energy vehicles from all brands reaching a monthly sales volume of 383,453 vehicles, a slight increase of 0.26% year-on-year, achieving year-on-year positive growth in monthly sales after ten months; among them, passenger car deliveries reached 376,990 units, surging 19.4% month-on-month, wiping out the pain of previous model iterations, presenting a new pattern where the domestic base is stable, overseas sales are soaring, and high-end brands are scaling up across the board. Amidst the market environment of intensified competition in the domestic new energy sector, Tesla FSD entering China, and an intense launch of independent new products, it has forged a unique structural growth path.
The Dynasty and Ocean main brands combined sold 330,215 vehicles in May, accounting for over 80% of the group's total sales, remaining the stabilizer for BYD's sales volume. The full series had 8 models exceeding 20,000 units in monthly sales, covering products from 50,000 entry-level commuter to 200,000 home SUV.
Inside the Dynasty Network, the Yuan family sold 56,691 units, and the Song family 51,370 units. Both crossed the 50,000 threshold, becoming two major sales pillars for the brand, catering to home commuter and urban-rural travel needs; the Qin family followed closely with a stable performance of 28,360 units. The Han and Tang series maintained a volume in the six-thousand range, deeply cultivating the mid-to-large home sedan and SUV niche markets; the brand new model Xia is in the market cultivation phase, delivering 1,810 units monthly, with potential for steady volume growth as channels expand.
The Ocean Network's growth momentum is even more rapid, with 5 models entering the 20,000 club across the series: Sealion 42,615 units, Seal 34,117 units, Seagull 39,919 units, Dolphin 22,260 units, and Song PLUS 27,755 units. Among them, Seagull remains the best-selling entry-level commuter model thanks to its affordable pricing of 60,000-80,000. Sealion, as a new volume model, stands firm at the 40,000 level upon launch, filling the mid-size SUV product gap in the Ocean Network and perfecting the Ocean product tier layout. From commuter small cars to compact SUVs, the two main brands rely on DM-i hybrid and pure electric dual-line technologies to牢牢锁住 the mainstream home market share within 150,000 domestically.
Fang Cheng Bao Year-on-Year Surges 139.7%, Brand Upward Positioning Takes EffectThe high-end matrix of Denza, Fang Cheng Bao, and Yangwang sold a combined 46,489 vehicles in May, officially breaking away from the niche positioning to become a new pivot for BYD's brand premium and profit growth, breaking the industry curse of difficulty in high-end breakthrough for domestic brands.
The off-road brand Fang Cheng Bao sold 30,186 units monthly, surging 139.7% year-on-year, creating a new high in monthly sales since the brand launched. Its Titanium 7 model sold 18,280 units monthly, while Leopard 5 and Leopard 8 output remained stable, continuously squeezing the survival space for joint venture and imported models in the 250,000-400,000 hardcore off-road niche market.
Denza delivered 16,303 units in May, with the MPV benchmark D9 selling 6,721 units, and the Z9 series close to 6,000 units. MPV and mid-to-large sedan dual-line efforts helped them stand firm in the luxury new energy track; the million-level ultra-luxury brand Yangwang continued its steady climb, delivering 286 units that month, a year-on-year increase of 105.8%, completing market verification of the domestic brand ceiling product and forming a full price range product layout from 100,000+ home, 300,000-400,000 off-road, 500,000 luxury MPV to million-level flagship.
In May, BYD's overseas sales of passenger cars and pickup trucks reached 160,177 units, surging 80.7% year-on-year. Exports accounted for over 42% of the full series total sales, setting a new historical high for brand export and becoming the core driving force to stabilize May overall sales and achieve year-on-year positive growth.
Southeast Asia, Europe, and Latin America became the main incremental markets. Seagull, Song PLUS, and Yuan series continued to top new energy best-seller lists in multiple countries; the SHARK pickup truck exceeded 4,000 units in monthly exports for two consecutive months. Relying on the completion of localization production in Thailand, Brazil, Hungary, and Uzbekistan with four overseas vehicle factories, localized production continues to land, avoiding tariffs while rapidly penetrating terminal channels. Against the background of stock market competition in the domestic auto industry and normalized price wars, the rapidly expanding overseas market effectively counteracts sales volatility brought by domestic model iterations, officially upgrading from a supplementary market to BYD's core growth engine. As of now, BYD's global cumulative new energy vehicle sales have exceeded 16.5 million units, with the globalization map continuously broadening.
Intelligent Driving Empowers Product Iteration, H2 New Products Prepare to Surge VolumeMay marked a key node in BYD's intelligent driving landing, with the God's Eye intelligent driving system becoming a core bonus point for models: the number of vehicles with advanced intelligent driving across all brands exceeded 3.15 million, with daily road test data exceeding 200 million kilometers; that month, BYD implemented City Pilot and Smart Parking dual safety backup services, becoming the world's first auto manufacturer to achieve dual intelligent driving backups. Three days after policy implementation, the activation rate of models equipped with the God's Eye system in cities surged 50%. Intelligent driving experience upgrades directly drove in-store order conversion, solidifying product competitiveness for subsequent models to continue volume sales, and facing the intelligent driving market shock brought by FSD entering China.
From data details, BYD's cumulative sales from January to May 2026 were 1,405,039 units, down 20.32% year-on-year. The core reason is that the full series of main models were concentratedly iterated, and the capacity ramp-up of the 2nd Gen Fast Charge Blade Battery was restricted. The new Flash Charge Battery upgraded fast charging and low-temperature performance. Full series iteration models prioritized installing new batteries, but production line retrofitting dragged down capacity release. Order backlogs on popular models and delayed deliveries compressed the May delivery volume to a certain extent.
As the end of the second quarter approaches and the 2nd Gen Blade Battery capacity continues to release, coupled with new models such as Denza N8L, Fang Cheng Bao Titanium 7 Pure Electric Version, Sealion 05, and Xia L landing the market, the industry generally predicts that BYD's full brand sales in June are expected to exceed 400,000 vehicles. Relying on the four-dimension development logic of low-end volume locking share, high-end raising profit, overseas pushing volume, and intelligence improving product power, amidst the intensified new energy elimination round in the domestic market, BYD's full category layout advantage continues to amplify, securing its status as the domestic new energy leader, accelerating steadily towards global top auto manufacturers.
Have you ever seen the roads in India?
I've seen them online.
The scene is usually like this: a sedan blocked behind a cow, motorcycles running wild nearby, even milk tea vendors nearby, so "clean and hygienic".
However, in a place where many feel physically uncomfortable after watching, Toyota, Suzuki, Honda and other Japanese car companies decided to bet on India.
According to the Indian "Brand Quality Foundation" website, the three car companies will invest nearly $11 billion to build factories, increase capacity, and develop exports in India.
Some netizens commented: Did the three Japanese car companies have too much money?
In fact, they didn't have endless money to spend, nor were they bewildered by Indian curry. These Japanese car executives are much clearer than us.
Current Japanese car revenue and market share are declining. Raw material costs are soaring. Looking at the world map, finding a market that can accommodate capacity, expand share, and has gentle competition is not easy.
So, it wasn't that Japanese car companies chose India, but because they had no choice.
The Pain of Japanese Car Companies
Past Japanese cars were truly the envy of others.
Ask old drivers who drove Japanese cars over ten years ago, talking about Japanese cars, almost no one doesn't give a thumbs up, cheap price, fuel saving, durable...
Even many Japanese cars needed to be bought at a markup, but who would think this iron fortress would be beaten out of sight in a few short years.
With the wave of new energy vehicles coming, electrification and intelligence became the goal for many domestic car companies to "leapfrog". Relying on China's strong new energy vehicle industry chain advantages and car companies' own persistence on R&D and technology, Chinese independent brands quickly achieved "leapfrogging".
Domestic cars once criticized are now becoming more and more common on the roads, even surpassing joint ventures in share.
According to CPCA data, in April 2026, the share of independent brands reached as high as 62.5%, far exceeding Japan's 13.1%.
You need to know, the Chinese car market is the largest car market in the world. Losing speed in the Chinese market is like losing a huge piece of cake.
Meanwhile, the main theme of the Chinese market in recent years is still price wars. Racing on configuration, price, and service has become a normal state, which also had a huge impact on Japanese cars' profits.
Apart from China, Japanese cars are also not doing well in the US.
On January 20, 2025, Trump swore in as the 47th US President, starting a series of chaotic operations, including imposing additional car tariffs in the name of national security, causing the tariff rate for imported Japanese cars to reach as high as 27.5% at one point. Although it decreased later, it was still far higher than the initial tax rate.
This operation directly led to a tariff loss of over 2 trillion yen for seven Japanese car companies in fiscal year 2025.
Looking at Japan itself, it is actually not easy either.
Middle East geopolitical conflicts blocked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, transportation costs and raw material costs soared, Japanese car companies also had to suffer in silence.
Executives looking at the reports, their backs went cold, only to find a new growth curve.
So, Japanese car companies didn't fall in love with India, there was nowhere else to go.
Deep Thought on Choosing India
So, what magic does India have, to make Japanese car companies invest heavily?
The first advantage is big. In 2025, the Indian car market achieved 5.517 million new car sales, up 6% year-on-year, breaking the historical record, ranking as the third largest car market in the world, exceeding Japan for four consecutive years, second only to China and the United States.
The value of this doesn't need me to say much. India achieved this result mainly because India has been promoting tax reduction policies to promote consumption, which led to a significant increase in domestic consumption willingness.
The second advantage is close, meaning it is close to places where Japanese cars sell well, such as Africa.
So, India for Japanese car companies is more like a convenience store built in the center of a crossroad. You don't need to ship cars to eight countries separately, just build well at this stop in India, then unload ship by ship, and you can save a lot of costs.
The Nikkei also believes that India is expected to become its global car supply center.
The third advantage is stability. You know, Japanese cars' advantage is fuel cars, after all, the three major components of engines, gearboxes, and chassis, they have played for many years, technology accumulation is number one in the world.
But the Chinese car market has fully promoted electrification and intelligence development, leading to Japanese cars' advantage becoming weaker and weaker, impossible to play out. But India is different, it has the characteristics of few charging piles and slow electrification process. Indian old people buying cars still look for cheap, fuel saving, easy to fix, and these three points are exactly Japanese cars' old trade.
Especially Suzuki, always been India's car market evergreen, almost always sitting on the best-selling model throne, reputation of being worry-free, better than any advertisement.
So, Japanese car companies' vigorous layout of the Indian market is obviously carefully considered.
But, is the Indian market really that easy to mix?
The Hard-to-Bite Indian Market
Of course, India is not perfect like a hot commodity, its disadvantages are as obvious as its advantages, and every one is enough for Japanese car companies to face a hard time.
First talk about electrification. Yes, right now India has few charging piles and electric cars don't sell well, it is indeed a shelter for Japanese fuel cars. But you have to think, how long can this "shelter" avoid?
India previously shouted the slogan of 30% of new cars being electric vehicles by 2030. Although it sounds like bragging, but can't help but they really give subsidies, really build charging stations.
Imagine, what if one day India suddenly wakes up, starts vigorously promoting electrification, doing infrastructure, charging piles popping out like mushrooms after rain, then Japanese cars will be dumbfounded?
Isn't this a version of the Thai market?
Back then Japanese cars in Thailand won easily. The entire Southeast Asian market was called Japanese cars' backyard. Result Thailand took the lead in promoting electrification. Chinese electric vehicles came in, directly became a hot commodity. Look at Japanese cars again, share in Thailand falling down rapidly.
If India accelerates electrification, history will likely repeat, and this time, Japanese cars don't even have a place to flee, how to prevent will become the first problem for Japanese car companies.
Next talk about policy. India's policy is like a pot of curry, you never know if you will eat chicken or potato next time.
This magical country, today low tariff encourages building factories, tomorrow may fine you a huge amount. What's more annoying is mandatory joint venture. Foreign car companies want to sell cars in India, have to find local partners to partner up. When your factory is built, supply chain is done, India directly backstabs you. At that time whether adding money or withdrawing capital, what you get is heartache.
So you see, this market like India is like a mango that looks very sweet, bite the first mouth it's okay, chew two more mouths hit the hard core.
Japanese cars now is calculating, while the core hasn't bit the tooth, hurry up to nibble a few more mouths, but the core will bite sooner or later, just don't know which day.
Epilogue
Japanese cars this trip to India, not go for tourism, is go to make a living.
Chinese and Southeast Asian dining tables are more crowded, production and transportation costs have risen. Looking around the world, only this pot in India is still steaming, even if what is boiling inside is curry-flavored stones, have to bite hard and chew down.
Japanese car companies want to expand market, India wants to pull economy, solve employment, both sides have their own thoughts.
As for the ending is Japanese cars in India regain their glory, or like past competitors shamefully walk away, then is not known.
But no matter how, this play just started, we slowly watch is okay.
Anyway India's story, never bored.
BYD officially released the May 2026 production and sales flash report, with new energy vehicles from all brands reaching a monthly sales volume of 383,453 vehicles, a slight increase of 0.26% year-on-year, achieving year-on-year positive growth in monthly sales after ten months; among them, passenger car deliveries reached 376,990 units, surging 19.4% month-on-month, wiping out the pain of previous model iterations, presenting a new pattern where the domestic base is stable, overseas sales are soaring, and high-end brands are scaling up across the board. Amidst the market environment of intensified competition in the domestic new energy sector, Tesla FSD entering China, and an intense launch of independent new products, it has forged a unique structural growth path.
The Dynasty and Ocean main brands combined sold 330,215 vehicles in May, accounting for over 80% of the group's total sales, remaining the stabilizer for BYD's sales volume. The full series had 8 models exceeding 20,000 units in monthly sales, covering products from 50,000 entry-level commuter to 200,000 home SUV.
Inside the Dynasty Network, the Yuan family sold 56,691 units, and the Song family 51,370 units. Both crossed the 50,000 threshold, becoming two major sales pillars for the brand, catering to home commuter and urban-rural travel needs; the Qin family followed closely with a stable performance of 28,360 units. The Han and Tang series maintained a volume in the six-thousand range, deeply cultivating the mid-to-large home sedan and SUV niche markets; the brand new model Xia is in the market cultivation phase, delivering 1,810 units monthly, with potential for steady volume growth as channels expand.
The Ocean Network's growth momentum is even more rapid, with 5 models entering the 20,000 club across the series: Sealion 42,615 units, Seal 34,117 units, Seagull 39,919 units, Dolphin 22,260 units, and Song PLUS 27,755 units. Among them, Seagull remains the best-selling entry-level commuter model thanks to its affordable pricing of 60,000-80,000. Sealion, as a new volume model, stands firm at the 40,000 level upon launch, filling the mid-size SUV product gap in the Ocean Network and perfecting the Ocean product tier layout. From commuter small cars to compact SUVs, the two main brands rely on DM-i hybrid and pure electric dual-line technologies to牢牢锁住 the mainstream home market share within 150,000 domestically.
Fang Cheng Bao Year-on-Year Surges 139.7%, Brand Upward Positioning Takes EffectThe high-end matrix of Denza, Fang Cheng Bao, and Yangwang sold a combined 46,489 vehicles in May, officially breaking away from the niche positioning to become a new pivot for BYD's brand premium and profit growth, breaking the industry curse of difficulty in high-end breakthrough for domestic brands.
The off-road brand Fang Cheng Bao sold 30,186 units monthly, surging 139.7% year-on-year, creating a new high in monthly sales since the brand launched. Its Titanium 7 model sold 18,280 units monthly, while Leopard 5 and Leopard 8 output remained stable, continuously squeezing the survival space for joint venture and imported models in the 250,000-400,000 hardcore off-road niche market.
Denza delivered 16,303 units in May, with the MPV benchmark D9 selling 6,721 units, and the Z9 series close to 6,000 units. MPV and mid-to-large sedan dual-line efforts helped them stand firm in the luxury new energy track; the million-level ultra-luxury brand Yangwang continued its steady climb, delivering 286 units that month, a year-on-year increase of 105.8%, completing market verification of the domestic brand ceiling product and forming a full price range product layout from 100,000+ home, 300,000-400,000 off-road, 500,000 luxury MPV to million-level flagship.
In May, BYD's overseas sales of passenger cars and pickup trucks reached 160,177 units, surging 80.7% year-on-year. Exports accounted for over 42% of the full series total sales, setting a new historical high for brand export and becoming the core driving force to stabilize May overall sales and achieve year-on-year positive growth.
Southeast Asia, Europe, and Latin America became the main incremental markets. Seagull, Song PLUS, and Yuan series continued to top new energy best-seller lists in multiple countries; the SHARK pickup truck exceeded 4,000 units in monthly exports for two consecutive months. Relying on the completion of localization production in Thailand, Brazil, Hungary, and Uzbekistan with four overseas vehicle factories, localized production continues to land, avoiding tariffs while rapidly penetrating terminal channels. Against the background of stock market competition in the domestic auto industry and normalized price wars, the rapidly expanding overseas market effectively counteracts sales volatility brought by domestic model iterations, officially upgrading from a supplementary market to BYD's core growth engine. As of now, BYD's global cumulative new energy vehicle sales have exceeded 16.5 million units, with the globalization map continuously broadening.
Intelligent Driving Empowers Product Iteration, H2 New Products Prepare to Surge VolumeMay marked a key node in BYD's intelligent driving landing, with the God's Eye intelligent driving system becoming a core bonus point for models: the number of vehicles with advanced intelligent driving across all brands exceeded 3.15 million, with daily road test data exceeding 200 million kilometers; that month, BYD implemented City Pilot and Smart Parking dual safety backup services, becoming the world's first auto manufacturer to achieve dual intelligent driving backups. Three days after policy implementation, the activation rate of models equipped with the God's Eye system in cities surged 50%. Intelligent driving experience upgrades directly drove in-store order conversion, solidifying product competitiveness for subsequent models to continue volume sales, and facing the intelligent driving market shock brought by FSD entering China.
From data details, BYD's cumulative sales from January to May 2026 were 1,405,039 units, down 20.32% year-on-year. The core reason is that the full series of main models were concentratedly iterated, and the capacity ramp-up of the 2nd Gen Fast Charge Blade Battery was restricted. The new Flash Charge Battery upgraded fast charging and low-temperature performance. Full series iteration models prioritized installing new batteries, but production line retrofitting dragged down capacity release. Order backlogs on popular models and delayed deliveries compressed the May delivery volume to a certain extent.
As the end of the second quarter approaches and the 2nd Gen Blade Battery capacity continues to release, coupled with new models such as Denza N8L, Fang Cheng Bao Titanium 7 Pure Electric Version, Sealion 05, and Xia L landing the market, the industry generally predicts that BYD's full brand sales in June are expected to exceed 400,000 vehicles. Relying on the four-dimension development logic of low-end volume locking share, high-end raising profit, overseas pushing volume, and intelligence improving product power, amidst the intensified new energy elimination round in the domestic market, BYD's full category layout advantage continues to amplify, securing its status as the domestic new energy leader, accelerating steadily towards global top auto manufacturers.
