你睇過印度嘅馬路嗎？

我喺網上見過。

畫面通常係咁，一輛轎車俾牛尾擋住，旁邊仲有亂竄嘅摩托，甚至周圍仲有賣奶茶嘅小夥，嗰叫一個“乾淨又衛生”。

然而，喺呢啲睇完好多人覺得生理不適嘅地方，豐田、鈴木、本田等日本車廠，卻決定將籌碼押落印度。

據印度“品牌質量基金會”網站顯示，三家車廠將喺印度投資近110 億美元建廠、提產能、搞出口。

對此有网友表示，三家日本車廠係咪錢多到無處花？

事實上，佢哋唔係錢多到花唔完，亦唔係被印度嘅咖哩蒙蔽咗心竅，呢啲日本車廠高層遠比我哋清醒。

而家嘅日系車，營業額、市場份額都喺下滑，原材料成本仲係升得飛起，打開世界地圖，搵一個能夠容納產能、拓充份額、競爭溫和嘅市場，唔係咁容易嘅事。

所以，唔係日本車廠選擇咗印度，而係因為冇得揀。

日本車廠之痛

曾經嘅日系車，嗰時妥妥係人哋個仔。

你問下十幾年前開過日系車嘅老司機，一提起日系車，幾乎就冇唔豎大拇指嘅，價錢平、省油、耐用又抵撞……

甚至好多日系車，仲要加價購買，但邊個諗到，呢個鐵打嘅江山，短短幾年時間就俾佢哋打得找唔著北。

隨著新能源汽車浪潮嚟到，電動化、智能化變成好多自主車廠“彎道超車”嘅目標，依托於中國強大嘅新能源汽車產業鏈優勢同車廠自身對研發、技術嘅堅持，中國自主品牌迅速實現咗“彎道超車”。

曾經被人吐槽嘅國產車，而家喺馬路越來越多人，甚至份額超越咗合資。

根據乘聯會嘅數據，喺2026 年4 月，自主品牌嘅份額已經高達62.5%，遠超日系嘅13.1%。

要知道，中國汽車市場係全球最大嘅汽車市場，喺中國市場失速，就相當於丟咗一塊巨大嘅蛋糕。

同時，中國市場近年嚟嘅主旋律依舊係價格戰，捲配置、捲價格、捲服務已經成為一種常態，亦對日系車嘅利潤產生咗巨大嘅影響。

除咗中國，日系車喺美國過得亦唔太好。

2025 年 1 月 20 日，特朗普宣誓就職第 47 任美國總統，自此開啟咗一連串搞搞震，其中就包括以國家安全為理由徵收額外嘅汽車關稅，導致進口日本汽車嘅關稅稅率一度高達 27.5%，雖然後嚟有所降低，但亦遠高於最初嘅稅率。

呢個操作，直接導致七大日本車廠喺2025 財政年度嘅關稅損失超2 萬億日元。

再睇日本本土，其實亦唔容易。

中東地緣衝突導致霍爾木茲海峽航運受阻，運輸成本、原材料成本暴漲，日本車廠都有苦難言。

高管們看著報表，背後發涼，只能尋找全新嘅增長曲線。

所以，日本車廠唔係愛上印度，係冇地方去。

揀選印度嘅深思熟慮

咁，印度點解咁有魔力，先至令日本車廠重資投入呢？

第一個優勢就係大。喺2025 年，印度汽車市場取得咗551.7 萬輛嘅新車銷量，同比增長 6%，刷新咗歷史紀錄，位居全球第三大汽車市場，已经连续四年超越日本，僅次於中國同美國。

呢個含金量唔使多講啦，而印度取得呢一成績，主要係因為印度一直喺推動減稅政策，促進消費，這導致國內消費意願出現咗明顯增強。

第二個優點係近，就係離日系車賣得動嘅地方近，如非洲等其他地區。

所以，印度對於日本車廠，更似一個建喺十字路口中央嘅便利店，你唔使將車分別運去八個國家，只需要喺印度呢站造好，然後一船一船甩去，就能削減唔少成本。

《日本經濟新聞》亦認為，印度有望轉變為佢哋全球嘅汽車供應中心。

第三個優點係穩。要知道，日系車嘅優勢就係燃油車，畢竟引擎、變速箱、底盤三大件，佢哋已經玩咗好多年，技術積累喺全球都係數一數二。

但係中國汽車市場已經全力推動電動化、智能化發展，導致日系車嘅優勢越來越弱，根本無法發揮出嚟，但印度唔一樣，佢擁有充電樁少、電動化進程緩慢嘅特點，印度老百姓買車，都仲係盯住平、省油、易修，而呢三點正係日系車嘅老本行。

尤其係鈴木，一直係印度汽車市場嘅常青樹，幾乎年年穩坐暢銷車型寶座，口碑好，勝過任何廣告。

所以，日本車廠大力佈局印度市場，顯然是經過深思熟慮嘅。

但，印度市場真係咁好混咩？

難啃嘅印度市場

當然，印度亦唔係完美得似個香口格，佢嘅缺點同佢嘅優點一樣明顯，而且每一個都夠日本車廠喝一壺。

先講電動化，冇錯，眼睇下印度充電樁少、電動車賣唔動，確實係日系燃油車嘅避風港。但你得諗諗，呢個“避風港”能避幾耐？

印度此前可係喊出咗 2030 年電動車佔新車 30% 嘅口號，雖然聽落似吹水，但抵唔住人哋真補錢、真建充電站。

試諗下，萬一有日印度突然開竅，開始大力推動電動化、搞基建，充電樁似雨後春筍咁冒出來，嗰日系車唔就傻眼？

呢唔係泰國市場嘅翻版咩？

當年日系車喺泰國都係躺贏，整個東南亞市場，都被稱為日系車嘅後花園，結果泰國率先推動電動化，中國電動車一嚟，直接就成咗香口格，再睇日系車，喺泰國嘅市場份額嘩嘩嚟咗落。

如果印度係電動化一加速，歷史大概率會重演，而而家呢次，日系車連逃嘅地方都快冇咗，點樣預防，將成為日本車廠嘅首要問題。

再講政策，印度嘅政策就似一鍋咖哩，你永遠唔知下一口食到係雞肉定係馬鈴薯。

呢個魔幻嘅國家，今日係低關稅鼓勵建廠，明日就可能罰你一筆巨款，更令人頭痛嘅係強制合資，外國車廠想喺印度賣車，要搵本地夥伴搭檔，等你工廠建好咗、供應鏈搭完咗，印度直接背刺你，到嗰陣無論係加錢定撤資，換嚟嘅都係心痛。

所以你看，印度呢個市場，就好似一個睇落好甜嘅芒果，咬落去第一口仲行，再啃幾口就摸著硬核。

日系車而家嘅算盤係，趁住核都未硌牙，趕緊多啃幾口，但核遲早會硌到，只係唔知係邊一日。

尾聲

日系車呢趟印度之旅，唔係去旅遊，係去搵食。

中國同東南亞嘅飯桌更擁擠，生產、運輸嘅成本又提高咗，放眼全球，就印度呢口鍋仲冒住熱氣，哪怕入面煮嘅係咖哩味嘅石頭，都要硬著頭皮啃落去。

日本車廠想擴大市場，印度想嘅係拉動經濟、解決就業，雙方都有各自嘅心思。

至於結局係日系車喺印度重新封神，定係好似當年嘅部分友商一樣灰溜溜走人，那就唔知啦。

但無論點樣，呢場戲先至開始，我哋慢慢睇就得啦。

反正印度嘅故事，從來唔會悶。

Have you ever seen the roads in India?

I've seen them online.

The scene is usually like this: a sedan blocked behind a cow, motorcycles running wild nearby, even milk tea vendors nearby, so "clean and hygienic".

However, in a place where many feel physically uncomfortable after watching, Toyota, Suzuki, Honda and other Japanese car companies decided to bet on India.

According to the Indian "Brand Quality Foundation" website, the three car companies will invest nearly $11 billion to build factories, increase capacity, and develop exports in India.

Some netizens commented: Did the three Japanese car companies have too much money?

In fact, they didn't have endless money to spend, nor were they bewildered by Indian curry. These Japanese car executives are much clearer than us.

Current Japanese car revenue and market share are declining. Raw material costs are soaring. Looking at the world map, finding a market that can accommodate capacity, expand share, and has gentle competition is not easy.

So, it wasn't that Japanese car companies chose India, but because they had no choice.

The Pain of Japanese Car Companies

Past Japanese cars were truly the envy of others.

Ask old drivers who drove Japanese cars over ten years ago, talking about Japanese cars, almost no one doesn't give a thumbs up, cheap price, fuel saving, durable...

Even many Japanese cars needed to be bought at a markup, but who would think this iron fortress would be beaten out of sight in a few short years.

With the wave of new energy vehicles coming, electrification and intelligence became the goal for many domestic car companies to "leapfrog". Relying on China's strong new energy vehicle industry chain advantages and car companies' own persistence on R&D and technology, Chinese independent brands quickly achieved "leapfrogging".

Domestic cars once criticized are now becoming more and more common on the roads, even surpassing joint ventures in share.

According to CPCA data, in April 2026, the share of independent brands reached as high as 62.5%, far exceeding Japan's 13.1%.

You need to know, the Chinese car market is the largest car market in the world. Losing speed in the Chinese market is like losing a huge piece of cake.

Meanwhile, the main theme of the Chinese market in recent years is still price wars. Racing on configuration, price, and service has become a normal state, which also had a huge impact on Japanese cars' profits.

Apart from China, Japanese cars are also not doing well in the US.

On January 20, 2025, Trump swore in as the 47th US President, starting a series of chaotic operations, including imposing additional car tariffs in the name of national security, causing the tariff rate for imported Japanese cars to reach as high as 27.5% at one point. Although it decreased later, it was still far higher than the initial tax rate.

This operation directly led to a tariff loss of over 2 trillion yen for seven Japanese car companies in fiscal year 2025.

Looking at Japan itself, it is actually not easy either.

Middle East geopolitical conflicts blocked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, transportation costs and raw material costs soared, Japanese car companies also had to suffer in silence.

Executives looking at the reports, their backs went cold, only to find a new growth curve.

So, Japanese car companies didn't fall in love with India, there was nowhere else to go.

Deep Thought on Choosing India

So, what magic does India have, to make Japanese car companies invest heavily?

The first advantage is big. In 2025, the Indian car market achieved 5.517 million new car sales, up 6% year-on-year, breaking the historical record, ranking as the third largest car market in the world, exceeding Japan for four consecutive years, second only to China and the United States.

The value of this doesn't need me to say much. India achieved this result mainly because India has been promoting tax reduction policies to promote consumption, which led to a significant increase in domestic consumption willingness.

The second advantage is close, meaning it is close to places where Japanese cars sell well, such as Africa.

So, India for Japanese car companies is more like a convenience store built in the center of a crossroad. You don't need to ship cars to eight countries separately, just build well at this stop in India, then unload ship by ship, and you can save a lot of costs.

The Nikkei also believes that India is expected to become its global car supply center.

The third advantage is stability. You know, Japanese cars' advantage is fuel cars, after all, the three major components of engines, gearboxes, and chassis, they have played for many years, technology accumulation is number one in the world.

But the Chinese car market has fully promoted electrification and intelligence development, leading to Japanese cars' advantage becoming weaker and weaker, impossible to play out. But India is different, it has the characteristics of few charging piles and slow electrification process. Indian old people buying cars still look for cheap, fuel saving, easy to fix, and these three points are exactly Japanese cars' old trade.

Especially Suzuki, always been India's car market evergreen, almost always sitting on the best-selling model throne, reputation of being worry-free, better than any advertisement.

So, Japanese car companies' vigorous layout of the Indian market is obviously carefully considered.

But, is the Indian market really that easy to mix?

The Hard-to-Bite Indian Market

Of course, India is not perfect like a hot commodity, its disadvantages are as obvious as its advantages, and every one is enough for Japanese car companies to face a hard time.

First talk about electrification. Yes, right now India has few charging piles and electric cars don't sell well, it is indeed a shelter for Japanese fuel cars. But you have to think, how long can this "shelter" avoid?

India previously shouted the slogan of 30% of new cars being electric vehicles by 2030. Although it sounds like bragging, but can't help but they really give subsidies, really build charging stations.

Imagine, what if one day India suddenly wakes up, starts vigorously promoting electrification, doing infrastructure, charging piles popping out like mushrooms after rain, then Japanese cars will be dumbfounded?

Isn't this a version of the Thai market?

Back then Japanese cars in Thailand won easily. The entire Southeast Asian market was called Japanese cars' backyard. Result Thailand took the lead in promoting electrification. Chinese electric vehicles came in, directly became a hot commodity. Look at Japanese cars again, share in Thailand falling down rapidly.

If India accelerates electrification, history will likely repeat, and this time, Japanese cars don't even have a place to flee, how to prevent will become the first problem for Japanese car companies.

Next talk about policy. India's policy is like a pot of curry, you never know if you will eat chicken or potato next time.

This magical country, today low tariff encourages building factories, tomorrow may fine you a huge amount. What's more annoying is mandatory joint venture. Foreign car companies want to sell cars in India, have to find local partners to partner up. When your factory is built, supply chain is done, India directly backstabs you. At that time whether adding money or withdrawing capital, what you get is heartache.

So you see, this market like India is like a mango that looks very sweet, bite the first mouth it's okay, chew two more mouths hit the hard core.

Japanese cars now is calculating, while the core hasn't bit the tooth, hurry up to nibble a few more mouths, but the core will bite sooner or later, just don't know which day.

Epilogue

Japanese cars this trip to India, not go for tourism, is go to make a living.

Chinese and Southeast Asian dining tables are more crowded, production and transportation costs have risen. Looking around the world, only this pot in India is still steaming, even if what is boiling inside is curry-flavored stones, have to bite hard and chew down.

Japanese car companies want to expand market, India wants to pull economy, solve employment, both sides have their own thoughts.

As for the ending is Japanese cars in India regain their glory, or like past competitors shamefully walk away, then is not known.

But no matter how, this play just started, we slowly watch is okay.

Anyway India's story, never bored.