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The most "BMW" car is no longer BMW's most important car.
By｜Hu Chengxu Edit｜Mao Shiyan
Auto Pixel (ID:autopix)Original
BMW's best news and worst news arrived at almost the same time.
At the end of July, BMW reached a milestone in Debrecen, Hungary. The group's first all-electric exclusive factory produced its 50,000th Neue Klasse iX3.
Orders are growing faster than production ramp-up. From production start to the 50,000th unit roll-off, it took only nine months, while iX3 orders in Europe are approaching 100,000. BMW disclosed that for every three new electric vehicle orders in Europe, one belongs to the iX3.
To catch up with demand, the Debrecen factory started a second shift earlier, and hundreds of employees were transferred from the China factory for support.
In the first half of 2026, the iX3 also swept the World Car of the Year and World Electric Vehicle awards.
This is probably BMW's best new product start in the last decade. However, within the same period, several other things happened.
On July 29, BMW reached an agreement with the Works Council to launch a voluntary redundancy plan starting in October, cutting approximately 8,000 jobs globally by the end of 2027, accounting for 5.2% of its 154,500 employees. The cuts fell on R&D, planning, and functional departments in Germany, effectively slicing off one-fifth of BMW's white-collar jobs in Germany.
On July 30, BMW released its financial report for the first half of 2026. Net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.858 billion euros, down 25.75%. Pre-tax profit in the second quarter was 1.7 billion euros, a year-on-year decline of 35.1%.
The automotive business operating profit margin dropped by more than half year-on-year, and free cash flow decreased by 73.4%. These factors caused BMW's stock price to fall by about 39% this year, touching a 52-week low in late July.
The huge hole dragging down BMW's performance is in China. In the first half, BMW China's sales fell 20.4% year-on-year, and the second quarter's decline widened to 30.2%. With sales continuing to lose speed, China's record of consistently being BMW's largest single market for 12 consecutive years was ended, and its share of BMW's global sales dropped from a peak of 33.5% to 25.5%.
But in China, where BMW's new energy transformation needs to be tested the most, new cars arrived the latest. The domestic version of iX3 will be launched in the fourth quarter of this year.
Thus, strong sales in Europe are a good start, but it cannot yet prove it is the answer. The old market is losing speed, and the new anchor has not yet completed the hardest verification.
01
BMW Once Only Needed One Car
The last time BMW used the name "Neue Klasse" was in 1962. That time, it saved the company.
Before that, BMW had walked to the edge of being absorbed. Daimler-Benz proposed a takeover and restructuring plan. Before the December 1959 shareholder meeting, the deal was once considered a foregone conclusion. It was not until minority shareholders and employee representatives opposed it on the spot that the plan was vetoed, and BMW barely retained independence.
At that time, its product line was almost severed in the middle. One end was cheap micro-cars and motorcycles like the Isetta, while the other end was expensive V8 sedans like the 501 and 502. In the middle, there was no mainstream product that could contribute scale and profits simultaneously.
Marketing Director Paul Hahnemann saw this gap: a family sedan with displacement between 1.5 and 2.0 liters, high quality, and a sports character.
At the 1961 Frankfurt Motor Show, the BMW 1500 made its debut. This series was called "Neue Klasse".
▍BMW 1500 at the 1961 Frankfurt Motor Show
The four-door body abandoned the 501's elaborate styling and turned towards a more restrained, function-focused design. Von Falkenhausen developed the M10 engine for it and persuaded management to increase the displacement from the initial idea of 1.3 liters to 1.5 liters, while leaving space for expansion to 2.0 liters.
On the rear side of this car, at the junction of the C-pillar and the body, the "Hofmeister kink", a fold line turning forward, appeared for the first time, which later became BMW's signature.
But these elements that later defined BMW did not immediately bring a sales legend. The 1500 was produced for over two years, with full lifecycle sales of 23,800 units. What truly changed BMW's fate was the product template it provided. The four-door Neue Klasse was produced cumulatively for 339,800 units. The 02 series, shortened and simplified from it, sold over 820,000 units.
From 1960 to 1970, BMW's sales tripled, and revenue growth exceeded seven times. In 1963, nearly two decades after the dividend suspension, BMW resumed dividends to shareholders.
The M10 engine was produced until 1988, cumulatively exceeding 3.5 million units, and later spawned M12 and M13 turbocharged models for the F1 arena. In 1966, it lapped the Nürburgring Nordschleife in under 10 minutes.
That same year, BMW put the Neue Klasse technology and sports character into a more compact and cheaper car, and the 02 series was born. In 1975, its successor officially adopted a new name: the 3 Series.
From 1975 to now, the 3 Series has cumulatively sold over 16 million units, making it BMW's best-selling series. Luxury mid-size sedans have long used the 3 Series as the benchmark; Audi A4, Mercedes-Benz C-Class, Lexus IS, and even the later NIO ET5 all treated it as an archnrival.
More importantly, it turned sports character into a product logic that BMW could replicate generation after generation.
BMW's official positioning of the 3 Series has always been clear. In 2024, the wording was that for nearly 50 years, the 3 Series has always represented the core (the core of the BMW brand) of the BMW brand; in 2022, it was called the heart (the heart of the BMW brand) of the brand; when the new i3 was released in 2026, the 3 Series was still emphasized as the essence (the essence of the BMW brand) of the BMW brand.
These are not just rhetoric. Over the past few decades, many of BMW's key technologies and product concepts first became complete cars on the 3 Series before spreading to other products.
In 1985, the second-generation 3 Series E30 launched the 325iX, becoming BMW's first four-wheel-drive sedan, laying the starting point for the xDrive that later covered the entire series.
▍Third-generation 3 Series from 1990 to 1998
By the third-generation 3 Series E36, the 3 Series began to define BMW's driving experience more deeply. The Z-link multi-link rear suspension was extended to sedan, two-door, and wagon versions, and the center console was also significantly tilted towards the driver. "Driver-oriented" was established as a replicable cockpit layout.
In the past six decades, BMW's method of expanding its product line was essentially to replicate the 3 Series, scale it up to 5 Series and 7 Series, scale it down to 1 Series, and elevate it to X3 and X5. As long as the answer of the 3 Series stands, BMW's product line stands.
But in the EV era, BMW took the premiere rights of "Neue Klasse" from the 3 Series, and also took away the power to define the next generation of BMW.
02
The Next Generation BMW,
No Longer Starting with the 3 Series
In September 2025, BMW reactivated the "Neue Klasse" name at the Munich IAA. But the first car was not the i3, but the iX3. Six months later, the i3 was released, officially referred to only as the "second Neue Klasse model".
Technical premiere rights were also moved. The Driving Super Brain Heart of Joy, which best embodies BMW's differentiation, as well as sixth-generation electric drive, large-format cylindrical cells, and Panoramic iDrive, were all first deployed on the iX3.
The i3 launched next year, every technology it receives, was received by the iX3 first.
In terms of wording, the change in status can even be seen. For example, for a certain function, the official wording for the iX3 was "the smoothest parking process in BMW history", while the i3 was described as "the smoothest parking process in 3 Series history", the scope was proactively narrowed.
In Q1 2026, global deliveries of the 3 Series and 4 Series totaled 103,800 units, down 11.8% year-on-year; X3 grew by 18.5% year-on-year, of which a considerable proportion came from the iX3. Analysts believe the iX3 could push the X3 family to the top of BMW's sales list by the end of 2026.
BMW's definition of the i3 has also regressed from "defining the entire series" back to "continuing 3 Series DNA", and the task of defining the next generation of products has been handed over to the SUV.
BMW is not the first to do this.
Tesla had the sedan Model 3 first in 2017, and the SUV form Model Y only in 2020, but the latter is the anchor that determines Tesla's product configuration. Model Y is not only Tesla's best-selling car globally, but also the foundation for its subsequent products, such as Cybercab.
Li Auto is even more thorough, and has not yet launched a sedan.
Behind this is first the engineering reality. The BEV platform lays a battery about 10 cm thick under the floor, which is naturally more suitable for higher-bodied SUVs. The battery gives SUVs the low center of gravity that sedans once had exclusively, but it does not give sedans the space of SUVs. Therefore, the mainstream configuration of the new energy era tilts towards SUVs.
But more importantly, the "driving dynamics" represented by sedans could almost support all of BMW's value in the ICE era; in the EV era, it is still important, but only one layer of product capability. Space, comfort, and cockpit experience, SUVs are rather easier to make comprehensive.
This means the 3 Series can no longer represent the Neue Class BMW. But the 3 Series stepping down does not mean the iX3 has completed the succession.
Beyond driving dynamics, the intelligent driving, cockpit, and ecosystem that determine the victory or defeat of new energy vehicles in China, BMW relies heavily on public suppliers. The China-spec iX3 adopts Momenta intelligent driving, while Momenta also supplies Mercedes, Audi, and IM Motors. In the capabilities consumers value most, BMW stands on the same foundation as rivals.
To re-establish differentiation, BMW almost rewrote the domestic iX3. 70% of the OS code was rewritten by the Chinese team, intelligent driving was co-developed again, and the cockpit integrated Alibaba, DeepSeek, Huawei, and Gaode.
The trade-off was time. The overseas version was delivered this March, and the domestic version will be launched in the fourth quarter.
Peculiarly, the market where BMW has the deepest problems, the new product arrived the latest. Mercedes has already compressed the pure electric GLC to 299,900 yuan, and Chinese new EV players have also completed several rounds of iteration in the same price range.
Meanwhile, starting from July this year, the domestic i3 and iX1 entered the production halt process, and i5 production was suspended. BMW cleaned up the previous generation of electric products to free up production lines and resources for the Neue Class models.
This led to it having virtually no domestic pure electric models for sale, with a new energy penetration rate in China of only about 6% in the first quarter, while the overall market in China has already exceeded 50%.
So, the iX3 has not yet taken the most critical exam. Its success in Europe can only prove that BMW made a decent car, but it has not yet proven in the global competition's most fierce and cutting-edge new energy market that it is sufficient to become the anchor of the next generation of BMW.
03
iX3 Is Not Yet The New Anchor
In 2020, BMW also made an iX3.
It rolled off the line at the Shenyang Dadong Plant, it was BMW Brilliance's first truly global model. All iX3s sold worldwide came from the same plant and were all the same car.
Six years later, the new generation iX3 has two versions. The standard wheelbase version is produced in Debrecen, Hungary, for Europe and the US; the long wheelbase version is produced in Shenyang, for China, as well as India, Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia.
With the same car name, selling one car globally has become two distinctly different products.
In the ICE era, domestic BMWs would also be lengthened. At that time, the long wheelbase version and standard wheelbase version still shared the same core technology, just different dimensions. Now operating systems, intelligent driving solutions, AI engines, and ecosystem systems have all gone down different paths.
The fundamental divergence is demand. The 3 Series can be unified globally because the market demand for good-handling mid-size sedans is consistent. For the new energy market where the iX3 belongs, the demands on both sides are already different; the Chinese market values intelligence, rear seat experience, and ecosystem connectivity more.
This also pushes the problem to a deeper level. If a car entrusted with a global anchor role must be rewritten after entering the most competitive market, can it still represent globally?
Furthermore, the victory won by the iX3 in Europe, the time may not be plentiful.
In April this year, the sales share of Chinese brands in the European electric vehicle market exceeded 15% for the first time, and the overall market share rose to 9.8%. In May, monthly new car registrations of Chinese automakers in Europe exceeded Japanese automakers for the first time. In the first quarter, exports to Europe reached 438,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 84.7%.
What mainly blocks domestic carmakers is tariffs. The combined tax rate for some domestic new energy vehicles in Europe reaches up to 45.3%. Even bearing high tariffs, the BYD Dolphin Surf (corresponds to the domestic Dolphin) is still cheaper than the same-class Renault 5 in Germany.
And this barrier is being bypassed. BYD, Chery, and Geely are turning tariffs from long-term barriers into phased costs by building factories in Europe or utilizing existing capacity.
More critically, the iX3 is absent from not just an ordinary market, but a place where global new energy competition premiered early. The demand changes happening in China today may well be the preview for other markets in the coming years.
This consolidation has already begun. Geely's G-ASD became the first Chinese driver assistance system to pass EU certification; XPeng has also brought intelligence into Europe as a lever for future competition.
They are betting on Europe's next stage. After electrification, competition will continue to migrate towards intelligence, and gradually approach today's China.
This means the China-spec iX3 is not just BMW's catch-up for a regional market, but also verifying the answer for the next round of global competition for it. The problem is that this verification has not started, and the time and profit space left for BMW have tightened simultaneously.
The semi-annual report released on July 30 maintained the automotive business profit margin guidance of 1% to 3%, this range was significantly reduced from 4% to 6% in June.
BMW's "voluntary redundancy plan" will last from October this year to the end of 2027, and true improvement in profitability will not come until 2028. The product battle that decides victory or defeat, however, has already started from Q4 2026.
BMW is not without the conditions to make long-term decisions. In 1962, Herbert Quandt dared to bet the entire company, and the governance structure relied upon that by stable family holding, allowing enterprises to bet across cycles still exists, and the Quandt family still holds about half of BMW's shares.
But things have changed.
In 1962, BMW had just walked out from the edge of being acquired. The Neue Class of that year was its all-in direction.
In 2025, BMW's global deliveries were about 2.17 million units. The iX3 is just the first of 40 future Neue Class products.
Today's BMW can no longer complete its transformation by relying on one car, one market, and one set of answers. This is where BMW is safer than in 1962, and also where it is harder than in 1962.
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