搜尋歷史
熱門搜尋
經銷商登入 / 註冊
Auto-First｜Samar
The October car market, looked busy on the surface, but was cold on the inside. Profits are becoming the cruest sieve. Annual goal completion generally faces pressure, financial reports are more real than sales rankings, landscape differentiation accelerates, dealers struggle to sustain capital chain. The whole car market has endless glory, but also hidden currents, and even thorns.
①
The 'Silver October' is not really silver; the retail sector is still bottoming out.
CPCA estimated, October narrow passenger car retail about 1.6 million units, down 28.9% year-on-year, down 1.1% month-on-month. Wholesale side looks good, does not equal end-user sales boom, exports, channel restocking and inventory transfers exaggerated the surface numbers. For automakers, the real pressure is not 'how much was sold', but whether consumers are willing to pay now.
②
Do not just treat penetration rate as a victory slogan.
October new energy penetration rate approaches 70%, but this is a milestone under wholesale figures. Retail side new energy also grows, but total volume pressure means many increments come from substitution of fuel cars and same price competitors. The higher the penetration rate, the more it tests gross profit per vehicle, energy supply system, and software experience, cannot just treat penetration rate as a victory slogan.
③
Overseas strategy enters 2.0.
Major automakers rapidly promote from 'selling cars' to 'building factories locally', tariff bat and labor relations, supply chain reconstruction, compliance costs of environmental regulations, are pushing more Chinese automakers to start local factory operations. Leapmotor B10 went offline at Zaragoza, Spain factory, Chery South Africa Rosslyn factory plan to put into production mid-2027, GAC Yinpai Thailand battery factory put into production; BYD, Geely, SAIC advance on multiple fronts through self-built, joint ventures, acquisitions in Europe.
④
Great Wall Motor has been completely left behind by BYD, Geely, and Chery.
This year first three quarters, BYD, Geely Automobile and Great Wall Motor cumulative car sales are 3.1316 million units, 2.2355 million units, 920,300 units respectively. Regarding monthly sales, Great Wall Motor hovered between 100,000-120,000 units, and revenue increased but profit did not, first three quarters net profit dropped by more than half year-on-year, falling behind significantly. New force representative Leapmotor has already broken 100,000 units monthly sales for four consecutive months, surpassing Great Wall Motor is imminent. And Great Wall Motor domestic sales only left less than 50,000 units, several new forces including Leapmotor, Xpeng, Xiaomi monthly sales have already stood at 50,000 units.
⑤
Exchange rate fluctuations disturbed profits, but did not change Chery's overseas resilience.
October, Chery Group exported 200,600 units, year-on-year growth 58.7%, overseas sales share near 68%; first three quarters gross profit 39.004 billion yuan, year-on-year growth 32.38%, gross margin increased to 16.17%. Net profit attributable to shareholders slipped 2.8%, mainly not because selling cars not making money, but exchange gains/losses turned from gains of 2.974 billion yuan to losses of 3.171 billion yuan, forming over 6 billion yuan fluctuation, R&D expenses also year-on-year growth 40.21%. Excluding exchange gains/losses, Chery stated core profit exceeded 17 billion yuan, profit for period also slightly increased 0.65% year-on-year.
This indicates, exports remain a key engine for Chinese automakers' growth, exchange rate volatility does not change Chery's upward trend overseas.
⑥
Geely is becoming one of the most balanced domestic brands.
October Geely sales first time broke 300,000 units, Galaxy, Zeekr, Lynk & Co form new energy matrix, exports also for consecutive months remained high. Geely's advantage lies in not putting all eggs in one basket: scale relies on Galaxy, brand height relies on Zeekr, overseas relies on multi-brand synergy. Its challenge is how to continue to increase profit per vehicle amidst multi-brand parallelism.
⑦
High-end brands are gradually becoming a trend, represented by Zeekr and NIO.
Geely high-end brand Zeekr first 9 months sales doubled to 288,400 units, year-on-year growth 101%, in Geely total sales share is 12.9%, but revenue contribution exceeded 30%, year-on-year increase 13.6 percentage points, with 12.9% of sales volume contributed 31.3% of revenue. Q3 2026, NIO single quarter sales first time simultaneously exceeded Mercedes, BMW, Audi, NIO 111,638 units, BMW 107,219 units, Mercedes 86,800 units, Audi 94,597 units.
⑧
October several dark horses were very eye-catching.
SAIC MG and Changan Qiyuan are the unquestioned 'dark horses' of this month. SAIC MG brand global new energy sales over 85,000 units, among them domestic new energy sales over 31,000 units. Changan Qiyuan from September 46,507 units, to October single brand global sales 63,648 units. Among them, Changan Qiyuan Q06 launch month sales 10,152 units, became after Q05 again another big hit model.
⑨
Battery swapping and power battery supply underwent huge changes.
October, power battery second tier suppliers and battery swapping alliance had big changes. Xiaomi invested in Sunwoda, and with Li Auto same Sunwoda shareholder, CATL and NIO respectively 'formed gangs' to expand battery swapping alliance ranks, these two seemingly disjoint events, will to subsequent industry development continue to release impact.
⑩
Price war has passed the critical point of 'trading price for volume'.
Price cuts no longer bring transactions, only deeper observation. October discounted models average drop 38,000 yuan, overall drop 16.1%, but 44.6% of dealers reported transaction prices were falling, at same time 43.8% reported transaction rates also falling. A 200,000 yuan new car, manufacturer net profit pocketed about 3,000 yuan, net profit margin only 1.5%.
⑪
Dealer risk has changed from 'failing to meet tasks' to 'can cash flow last until year-end'. October inventory warning index 62.2%, year-on-year rise 9.6 percentage points, dealers reporting inventory 'growth' proportion within one month from 17.0% rose to 27.7%.
⑫
HIMA is not doing well. October HIMA, overall performance can only be described as 'bleak'. Its full series average transaction price exceeds 400,000 yuan, but delivery volume dropped 50.84% year-on-year, high unit price cannot hide loss of scale momentum. October deliveries 33,537 units, among them Aito delivered 22,105 units, Luxeed 6,090 units, year-on-year decline 52.5%. So, Maextro + Stark + Stelato left 5,342 units.
Behind this, naturally there is public opinion impact of 'brake incident' and ups and downs with Seres, but root cause lies in product itself. HIMA's Huawei halo cannot be said to be dimmed, but no longer so dazzling. With 'Jing' series volume increase and product layout and whole first 10 months car market nearly 600 new cars volume release, HIMA's five brands encountered strongest product encirclement in history, even powerful like Huawei and Qiankun Smart Driving ADS 5.0, hard to hide disappointment. Whether can pass bottleneck period, achieve Yu Chengdong previously set annual sales one million target, is a huge unknown.
⑬
Personnel adjustments inevitably follow sales volume and financial reports.
October automaker personnel adjustments dense, both involve strategic level personnel replacements, also pragmatic level for sales take blame of professional managers. Beijing Hyundai General Manager Li Fenggang will on November 1 officially resign. At this time from him 2025 November 10 take office this position, just full one year. October 22 Audi China announced, Zhang Jun November 1 take new, become Audi China first Chinese籍 President, predecessor Luo Yinghan return Germany HQ. October 16, Changan Automobile announced, Zhu Rongrong no longer concurrently listed company chairman, Zhao Fei take over, Ye Pei appointed as President. October 7, Chery disclosed new round division of labor, Zhang Guibing domestic business group and overseas business handle together, Li Xueyong focus on Jetour.
⑭
BBA belong to same camp, but coping strategies differ in style, whether together fall or synchronize differentiation, worth observing.
Audi adjustment most drastic. Announced new Audi China President, Audi split, North South divided, FAW Audi guards Four Rings brand, SAIC Audi focuses on AUDI letter brand brand. With Audi organizational restructuring different, BMW chose more steady, more bias manufacturing and supply chain path. New Chairman Niekevi took office after first visit China, in Shenyang witness 6th generation power battery in Shenyang mass production offline. BMW promised, to 2030 vehicles sold in China 95% or more achieve local production. Mercedes adjustment more bias seeking stability, smart driving to China delegate authority, but personnel localization still wavering.
⑮
New force landscape still in rapid flux.
October new force list drew three lines. 100,000 units is scale line, 50,000 units is head line, 30,000 units became crowded life/death line. Leapmotor cliff style lead, Xpeng and Xiaomi in second tier, others around 30,000 units cluster. Next truly determine seating, not some month sell more few thousand units, but who can continuously launch hits, open overseas market, and convert sales to healthy operating capability.
⑯
Leapmotor's 100,000 units, both ability and test.
Leapmotor consecutive four months break 100,000 units, rely on product coverage wide, price range probe and channel expansion. But low price model proportion increase, will drag down average selling price and gross margin; overseas rely on Stellantis channels volume increase, also未必 can fully convert to high profit. Scale lead after, Leapmotor must answer: Growth can more healthy.
⑰
Xpeng and Xiaomi stood at 50,000 units, but growth sources differ.
Xpeng October deliveries 50,237 units, overseas share significantly increased, overseas profitability higher than domestic, for it improve profit provided space. Xiaomi rely on Pengcheng series enter full delivery month, ecosystem synergy and capacity ramp-up become key. Both broke 50,000 units threshold, but one more rely on overseas, one more rely on new product cycle, subsequent stability still needs observation.
⑱
L3 Access Pilot Expansion.
October MIIT confirmed, second batch access pilot ongoing, first batch Changan and BAIC L3 products obtained conditional access. Technical level progress is real, but L3 commercialization bottleneck not in computing power or sensors, but in accident liability how divide, insurance products how price, automakers dare not in user manual write clearly 'system activate who responsible'.
⑲
Profits are becoming the cruest sieve.
Industry sales profit margin already dropped to low level, September single month even lower, vehicle companies by price war and cost rise squeezed. Some automakers rely on exports improve profit, some rely on high-end brands raise average price, some still trapped in 'sell more, earn less' cycle. Next, financial reports will be more real than sales ranking.
⑳
Annual target completion rate generally under pressure, Q4 may shift from volume sprint to ensuring health.
Most automakers first three quarters not complete annual target 75% theoretical pass line, Zeekr is few early finishers. If gap too large, terminal price concession, channel inventory control and profit safety become higher priority. Sales sprint still important, but blind inventory pressing cost will be higher.
Auto-First View: 2026 only left last two months, car market competition shifting from 'Product War' to 'System War'. Monthly hits can bring heat, but determine long-term seating is cost efficiency, globalization capability, smart foundation, supply chain security and organizational execution. October data already showed, who can hold profit in retail winter, who can stand firm in overseas storm, who can truly build barriers in technical deep water zone, only may survive until end.
(Image generated by AI)
