+150 Yuan Per Piece, Tire Prices Have Skyrocketed!

On October 19 alone, three price hike notices were released simultaneously.

A notice from a tire distributor in Handan was the most urgent: Starting from 00:00 on October 22, all specifications will be increased by 50–150 Yuan/piece:

Wanli Tires issued a notice on the same day. Starting October 23, domestic semi-steel tire sales will increase by 2%–5%, explicitly stating "further price adjustments cannot be ruled out":

Double Coin Group (Chongqing) Tires is scheduled for October 26, all brands increased by 3%–5%:

Since September, more than 80 tire enterprises have centrally released more than 100 price hike notices, covering all-steel tires, semi-steel tires, and engineering tires, with increases of 2%–5%, some specifications reaching 6%, marking the fourth round this year, execution dates ranging from October 5 to November 1:

More important than the increase rate: The protagonists of the price hike have moved from factories to the distribution channels.

Factory notices say "tell you when it will rise," distributor notices say "tell you if you can buy it now," firstly to offload low-price inventory purchased before the price hike, selling now means bearing costs for downstream; secondly it is judged that prices must rise later—the channels' vote on the future market is more honest than any research report.

At the end of September, three distributors—Jilin Lungda, Shandong Zhenghe'an, and Guangzhou Yuanhong—just followed up with a 1%–5% increase. One month later, Handan changed from "following the price hike" to "stopping sales first". Channel behavior upgraded by one level in a month: from passively following the hike to actively controlling the market.

Another layer often overlooked: factories raise by percentage, distributors raise by absolute amount. 50–150 Yuan/piece on different categories results in completely different increase rates—engineering tires have a high base, so 150 Yuan might only be 3%–5%; whereas for low-unit-price light truck tires and tubeless tires, 150 Yuan might far exceed the factory's increase.

Costs Haven't Peaked: Up 54 Points in Four Days

Longzhong Information October 19 data: Semi-steel tire raw material cost index 16169.21, up 28.16% year-on-year; All-steel tire 15330.01, up 27.85% year-on-year, the index is still climbing, costs have not peaked, price hike notices will not stop.

Compared to the price hike magnitude, a 5% increase is stopping the bleeding, not curing the disease. According to calculations by some Shandong enterprises, the theoretical profit for economy 12R22.5 all-steel tires is a loss of 3.19 Yuan per kilogram, amounting to the hundred-Yuan level per tire.

Industry experts point out that currently, all tires with a unit price per kilogram below 16 Yuan have halted production, and all production specifications are above 17 Yuan/kilogram.

Factory prices can hold, transaction prices will be discounted

Factory prices are set by manufacturers, transaction prices are set by the market, separated by channels. Now there is an added layer of distributors holding back sales: creating a "artificial shortage" in the short term, driving transaction prices up first; but inventory is not truly gone, once new prices are set and waiting turns to dumping, terminal prices will be discounted.

If factory prices hold this round, terminal transaction prices will be hard then soft. The real judge is natural rubber—El Niño expectations repeatedly strengthen, rainfall in southern Thailand is lower year-on-year, No. 20 rubber warehouse order once at historical low, Qingdao inventory just turned from destocking to slight restocking. If the supply side doesn't loosen up, costs won't come down.

Calculation for distributors: The price lock window is being squeezed from both ends

Upstream factories may adjust prices again at any time, peer distributors are starting to stop sales, supply will be tighter than you imagine.

After more than 100 price hike notices, what the industry really should watch is not the 101st or 102nd notice, but those new clauses in the notices: suspend orders, cash on delivery, refuse price locks.

Prices are the open cards, clauses are the hole cards. This time, even distributors started writing clauses—indicating this round of price hikes has reached a stage where "no one dares to trust prices, only spot goods".