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Chery exported 207,814 units in September. What does this mean — Chinese automotive enterprises exceeded 200,000 units in single-month exports for the first time. Chery's cumulative exports for the first three quarters reached 1.551 million units, already exceeding its own full-year target of 2025.
Data from CAAM: In January–August 2026, China's automotive exports reached 7.153 million units, a 66.7% year-on-year increase, surpassing the 7.098 million units of the full year of 2025. Single-month exports in August hit 1.01 million units, standing at the million-unit mark for three consecutive months; new energy vehicle exports were 526,000 units, a 1.3-fold increase year-on-year — for every two cars exported, one is a new energy vehicle. This proportion has exceeded 50% for three consecutive months.
(Correction on a frequently confused figure: The 52.4% figure represents the proportion of new energy vehicle sales to total vehicle sales from January–August, not the proportion of new energy vehicles in exports; the proportion of new energy vehicles in exports was 52.1% in August single month and cumulative 48.0% for January–August.)
As for the full year? CAAM Vice Secretary-General Chen Shihua said "cautiously optimistic, expected to exceed 10 million units". Cui Dongshu was more optimistic, saying it could reach 12 million units. CAAM's expectation at the beginning of the year was 7.4 million units — far surpassed by actual data.
The top three are very concentrated. In August, Chery exported 197,000 units, ranking first; BYD exported 189,500 units, setting a company single-month record; Geely exported 110,100 units, up 205% year-on-year. In September, BYD overseas exports were 179,900 units, Chery 207,800 units, Geely 106,700 units up 162% year-on-year, Changan 96,200 units up 73.8% year-on-year.
Looking back at this curve, it feels slightly unreal. In 2020, China's automotive exports were only 995,000 units; 2023 was 4.91 million — that year surpassed Japan to become the world's largest automotive exporting country. In 2025, according to CAAM figures, it was 7.098 million. Six years, spanning from the million-unit level to the eight-million-unit level.
Destinations are also shifting. The real change is Europe: In the first seven months of this year, independent Chinese automakers exported 777,000 units to the EU, up 106% year-on-year, becoming the number one regional destination. Data from ACEA shows, in August, Chinese brands held a combined share of 11.3% in the EU and UK markets, compared to only 7.1% in the same period last year; in May this year, five Chinese automakers sold 138,400 units in 31 European countries, six Japanese automakers 130,400 units — monthly sales exceeded Japan for the first time.
What's interesting is plug-in hybrids. EU anti-subsidy tariffs mainly target pure EVs; plug-in hybrids still apply a 10% basic tariff, so automakers are boosting plug-in hybrid offerings. Chinese automakers accounted for 34% of plug-in hybrid deliveries in Europe in June this year, a historic high.
Simply relying on shipping is no longer viable; manufacturing locally is necessary. BYD's Rayong factory in Thailand has a parts localization procurement rate of about 92%; the Brazil factory cumulatively produced 100,000 units by July this year, directly employing 5,500 local workers; Geely has 12 overseas manufacturing plants, and in July also announced a plan to invest €221 million to acquire a stake in Ford's Valencia factory in Spain; Chery took over Nissan's old factory in Spain and acquired Nissan's South Africa factory. Ministry of Commerce data: Chinese enterprises have invested in the automotive manufacturing industry in more than 80 countries and regions, selling cars to more than 200 countries and regions.
But on the other side, the domestic market is collapsing. The first half of the year, domestic car sales were 9.921 million units, down 21.1% year-on-year; passenger car retail sales were 8.701 million units, down 20.2% year-on-year; retail sales from September 1–27 decreased 29% year-on-year. One up, one down. This is the so-called "scissors gap" — passenger car wholesale dropped 5.7%, retail dropped 20.2% in the first half of the year. The nearly 15 percentage point difference was borne by channels and also flowed overseas.
Exports do not come without costs. Net profit margins for leading domestic automakers going overseas are generally below 5%; Toyota and Volkswagen's overseas net profit margins are between 15% and 20%; the vast majority of automakers only make money selling cars; overseas after-sales and auto finance in the aftermarket are nearly blank. Trade barriers are rising: EU anti-subsidy tariffs up to 45.3%; Brazil raised new energy vehicle import tariffs to 35% starting July 1. There is also a risk of concentration — more than 50% of exports are concentrated in the EU, Russia, and Brazil markets. In August this year, the Middle East was affected by geopolitical conflicts, with the UAE experiencing a single-month drop of over 30%.
Therefore, on August 24, the Ministry of Commerce, MIIT, and State Administration for Market Regulation jointly issued the "Guidelines on Overseas Competitive Behavior and Compliance Construction for the Auto Industry". This is China's first overseas compliance guidance document targeting a specific industry. The core point is: Pricing must establish a cost-based, internationally supply-and-demand-oriented strategy, without disrupting market order to gain unfair competitive advantage; when setting MSRPs, clear price gradients must be set for different configurations to avoid frequent and significant price fluctuations that could affect brand image.
To sum up in one sentence: Domestic sales are struggling, overseas sales are booming, but the more it sells overseas, the more likely it is to be targeted.
Going overseas has never been a path of refuge, just swapping to a more difficult exam.
