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During the National Day holiday, the tire industry didn't take a break, and neither did price hike notices — more than 20 companies issued price hike notices collectively during the holiday period, with 9 of them being short-term second adjustments. Previously, single-month price hike notices in September exceeded 100, involving over 80 companies, making it the most intensive price hike month in history.
Carbon Black Ignites, Natural Rubber Takes Over
Carbon Black raised prices first. According to data from Business China, on October 1st, the benchmark price for carbon black was reported at 11,692.86 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of approximately 59.74%, reaching a 6-year high; in September, the entire carbon black industry is expected to incur losses exceeding 120 million yuan. Natural Rubber followed closely: On September 30th, the main Shanghai Rubber contract closed at 20,095 yuan/ton, rising 5.54% in a single day, marking the first time since March 2017 that it crossed the 20,000 yuan threshold, setting a 9-year high.
Supply contraction is the main cause. The direct trigger was the flooding in Thailand — at the end of September, approximately 23,000 hectares of rubber plantations in four eastern provinces of Thailand were affected. Deeper down, it is insufficient supply elasticity: Rubber trees take 6 to 8 years to start tapping, the previous low-price cycle suppressed replanting, and the proportion of aging trees in major producing areas continues to rise.
One Notice Letter Covers Two Price Hikes
This round of price adjustments covers mainstream categories such as truck and bus tires, passenger car tires, and engineering tires, with mainstream increases of 2%—5%, and some specifications reaching up to 6%. Well-known brands such as Triangle, Double Coin, Linglong, and General Shares are all listed. It is worth noting that Zhongce Rubber increased its all-steel tire products by 2%—5% on September 16, and then increased by another 3%—5% on October 1st — one notification letter scheduled for two price hikes, showing that enterprises' judgment on raw materials has shifted from "short-term fluctuations" to "long-term highs".
New changes also appeared on the distribution channels: Distributors such as Jilin Lundah and Shandong Zhenghean actively issued letters to adjust prices, and the price hike first became a full-chain transmission; Wanda Baotong, General Shares, Guizhou Tire, etc. clearly stated they do not accept prepayment locking prices. Jiangsu Hu'an's price hike notice plainly stated: "Tire prices will not only gradually rise, but there will also be shortages." The price hike has also spread globally, with Hankook, Bridgestone, and Yokohama adjusting prices successively, and Goodyear and Nexen following up for the Chinese market in late October.
Losing 80 Yuan per Tire Sold, Factories Reduce Production in Advance
The scissors difference between cost and selling price best illustrates the problem: according to Chuo Chuang Information, the production cost for a single all-steel tire in August was approximately 989.44 yuan, while the market selling price was only 908.66 yuan — losing 80 yuan per tire sold. The comprehensive cost increase has exceeded 20%, while price hike notices are generally only 3%—5%, with the difference entirely absorbed by the manufacturing end. The factory response was to reduce production in advance: In the week at the end of September, the capacity utilization rate for semi-steel tires decreased by 10.44 percentage points month-on-month, and all-steel tires decreased by 9.79 percentage points.
Turning Point Not Yet Seen, Industry Shakeout Accelerates
Flooding in Thailand continues, and crude oil remains at a high level; high costs may prevail throughout the fourth quarter. Industry insiders point out that raw materials rising but not falling will accelerate the capacity clearance of small and medium-sized enterprises, and industry concentration is expected to rise during the shakeout — the biggest pressure is on small and medium-sized tire companies that have neither overseas capacity nor bargaining power.
The end of this price hike depends on the turning points for oil and rubber. But as for the turning point, it has not appeared yet.
