On the afternoon of September 9, international crude oil prices surged again, with Brent crude breaking through the $100 per barrel mark. Meanwhile, natural rubber is approaching the 20,000 yuan threshold, and carbon black is nearing the "10,000 yuan era". With raw materials rising across the board, Zhongce, Giti, Wanli, Primus Chengshan and about 30 other tire enterprises released price hike letters in succession, and the industry's third price hike wave of the year is surging.

Oil Price Breaks 100, Supply Gap Widens

As of press time, both Brent and New York crude oil prices rose, with Brent's year-to-date cumulative increase exceeding 60%. The continuous escalation of the Middle East situation is the direct driver: US forces destroyed 5 Iranian tankers carrying crude oil, and multiple Saudi energy facilities were attacked by Houthi forces. According to Rystad Energy data, daily crude oil transport volume in the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted from 8 million-9 million barrels before hostilities reignited to below 2 million barrels; IEA estimates global oil supply will decrease by 4.3 million barrels per day this year, a decrease of about 4%.

Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, HSBC and other institutions have successively raised oil price forecasts. Goldman Sachs warned that if the situation escalates further, oil prices could rise to $120 per barrel. At 24:00 on September 11, domestic oil prices will face a price adjustment window. According to Jinlianchuang calculations, retail prices for gasoline and diesel should be increased by 260 yuan per ton.

Rubber and Carbon Black Surge on Two Fronts

The rubber market surged simultaneously. Closing on September 9, the Shanghai Futures Exchange natural rubber main contract quoted 19,770 yuan per ton, just one step away from the 20,000 yuan threshold; the day before, the No. 20 rubber main contract refreshed the record since listing, synthetic rubber rose 4.59% in a single day, and the rubber family's "three brothers" rose together.

Carbon black price trends were even more fierce. Upstream coal tar auction transaction prices rose nearly 1,500 yuan compared to the same period last week, approaching historical highs; the market price of N220 was about 9,628 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of nearly 36%, and the daily increase of N330 once reached 550 yuan, with market discussions about the carbon black "10,000 yuan era" rapidly heating up. Coal tar accounts for about 70%-80% of carbon black costs, and carbon black accounts for about 15% of tire costs. Price hikes are being transmitted along the industrial chain level by level.

According to Zhuochuang Information data, compared with a month ago, mixed rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber, polybutadiene rubber, and carbon black N330 rose by 8.75%, 16.67%, 20.65%, and 16.89% respectively—the four core raw materials surged across the board. GTJA Futures analysts pointed out that oil prices pushing butadiene, supply contraction, Thai rubber tapping hindered, combined with El Niño production cut expectations, and the industrial chain price hike atmosphere strengthening, constitute a triple drive.

30 Enterprises Jointly Announce Price Hikes, Third Price Hike Wave of the Year

Under heavy cost pressure, price hike letters landed densely:

Zhongce Rubber increased all-steel engineering tire prices by 3%-5% from September 15; from October 1, other off-road products increased by 3%. Giti from September 27, all replacement market brand products overall adjusted up by 2%-4%. Wanli from September 23, some domestic semi-steel tire products adjusted up by 3%-5%, subsequent price adjustments cannot be ruled out. Primus Chengshan from September 26, replacement market all-steel tires, bias tires overall adjusted up by 3%. Fangxing Rubber, Weihai Rubber, Jianxin Rubber and others also followed successively.

According to incomplete statistics, since late August, Aeolus, Triangle, Cheng Shin, Maxxis and more than 20 other enterprises have released price adjustment notices. The total number of enterprises adjusting prices this round reached about 30, with mainstream increases of 2%-5%.