On October 19, the European Commission issued pre-disclosure on final countervailing duties regarding Chinese passenger car and light truck tires. Combined with previous anti-dumping tariffs, the comprehensive "dual anti-dumping" tax rate for Chinese tire exports to the EU ranged from a high of 57.09% to a low of 27.50%, while companies cooperating with both investigations faced a rate of 28.76%. The final countervailing duty ruling is expected to be released on December 5, leaving enterprises with only a month and a half window for adjustment.

Tariff Rate Split: Gap Between Responding and Non-Responding Nearly 30 Percentage Points

According to the disclosure, Linglong Group's combined dual anti-dumping rate totals 57.09%, Hankook Tire Group 28.76%, while non-cooperating enterprises are subject to the highest rate. The good news is, this ruling will not be applied retroactively, so goods already shipped are relatively safe. The China Rubber Industry Association has requested enterprises to submit comments before October 29 and has applied for a hearing on behalf of Chinese responding enterprises.

The European market is crucial for tire companies: In 2024, EU PCR tire consumption was about 330 million pieces, with a market size exceeding 18 billion euros, and China's import volume accounts for a 28% share — for every four passenger car tires in Europe, one comes from China. Once the 57% tariff rate is implemented, the price advantage of mid-to-low-end products will be greatly compressed.

Exports Plummeted 46.5%, But Orders Didn't Leave, Production Origins Changed

Pressure has already shown in the data: From January to August, Chinese exports of light passenger car tires to the EU reached 333,500 tons, down 46.5% year-on-year, with the EU dropping from the largest export region to third. However, the total export volume did not collapse; exports of light passenger car tires in August were 285,100 tons, up 3.84% month-on-month.

More importantly, "Chinese tires" have not truly left. The Astutus Research report shows that China's semi-steel radial tire share in the EU 27 countries plus the UK dropped from 71.8% to 58.1%, but during the same period, ASEAN share rose from 7.6% to 19.9% — Thailand's exports to Europe rose from about 2 million to 6 million pieces, Vietnam grew 130%, Cambodia rose from nearly zero to 2.3 million pieces, and new sources mostly come from overseas factories of Chinese tire companies.

Orders didn't leave, production origins changed. Goods shipped directly from domestic factories were blocked by high tariffs, while Southeast Asian factories entered the EU with local manufacturing status, circumventing dual anti-dumping taxes. Sailun's capacity in Vietnam and Cambodia, and Linglong's base in Thailand, are all taking on such orders.

Tariffs Cannot Block "Chinese Brands"

The EU is not an isolated case: The US Section 201 petition and Canada's dual anti-dumping investigation on Chinese truck and bus tires are also advancing concurrently. Ironically, EU tariffs are personally driving Chinese tire globalization layout — from Southeast Asia to North Africa, China's tire capacity map is larger than ever. But the cost is equally real: The average price to Saudi Arabia was only $2,198/ton, $3,798 to Japan, and enterprises are under pressure on both ends.

As Yuan Zhongxue, honorary chairman of Sailun Group, stated, Chinese tires are at the turning point of moving from "getting bigger" to "getting stronger". Going overseas is not just about capacity going out, but also about brands going up. Every dual anti-dumping investigation is an industry reshuffle — those who survive are not necessarily the largest, but must be the ones adjusting fastest.