Emission Standard Upgrades

1. Development History and Upgrade Pace

Since the introduction of the China I phase in 2000 through to the full rollout of the China 6b standard in July 2023, China took just 22 years to complete an emission upgrade roadmap that spanned nearly 30 years in Europe and the US, cutting cumulative vehicular emissions by over 90%. The regulatory update cycle has continued to compress—taking 5 years from China I to China II, down to 3 years from China III to China IV, and a mere 2 years from China V to China VI.

2. Key Focus Areas of the China VII Standard

The upcoming China VII standard is currently in development and slated for rollout around 2028, approximately two years behind the latest European and American equivalents. Moving beyond the traditional approach of merely lowering threshold limits, China VII marks three fundamental shifts:

• From pure pollution control to coordinated pollution and carbon reduction: The standard is officially repositioned from "Pollutant Emission Control Standards" to "Synergistic Control Standards for Pollutants and Greenhouse Gases", placing carbon dioxide alongside non-CO2 greenhouse gases such as nitrous oxide and automotive air-con HFC refrigerants under unified regulatory oversight for the first time.

• From single-model compliance to fleet average monitoring: Adopting a "fleet average emissions" framework, regulators will assess the combined average emission performance of a carmaker's entire product portfolio rather than simply testing whether an individual model meets the standard.

• From lab bench tests to full-spectrum real-world surveillance: Introducing strict requirements for Real Driving Emissions (RDE) as well as non-exhaust particulate matter (such as brake dust and tyre wear PN emissions), alongside upgrading conventional OBD to On-Board Monitoring (OBM) systems for continuous, over-the-air real-time data transmission.

3. Stringent Limits and Technical Hurdles

The proposed China VII limits are set to push internal combustion engines to their absolute physical thresholds. Industry projections suggest that light-duty vehicle nitrogen oxide (NOx) caps will drop from 35 mg/km under China 6b to 30 mg/km, or even below 17 mg/km—representing a cut of more than 50%; simultaneously, the particulate matter measurement threshold could be tightened from 23 nm to 10 nm. To clear stringent cold-start limits, vehicles will likely require hardware upgrades like electrically heated catalysts (EHC) and close-coupled SCR systems, significantly driving up per-vehicle exhaust aftertreatment costs.

4. Industry Ramifications and Future Outlook

The China VII standard is widely anticipated to be the "final emission standard" of the pure ICE era. Propelled by dual-carbon mandates and rapid electrification, these regulatory hurdles are compelling carmakers to reshuffle their model lineups, leverage NEV sales within fleet average calculations, and accelerate the strategic pivot from conventional ICE powertrains toward low-carbon and zero-emission solutions.