Automotive Industry Technology Roadmap

1. Definition and Strategic Positioning

The Technology Roadmap for Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicles is a strategic automotive technology blueprint drafted and published by industry experts under the guidance of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and organised by the China Society of Automotive Engineers. It is designed to provide directional guidance and a top-level framework for industry technological innovation, government R&D planning, and policy-making. Since its debut in 2016, the roadmap has seen three iterations—1.0, 2.0, and 3.0—establishing a continuous, dynamically updated drafting and annual assessment mechanism.

2. Version Evolution and Comparison of Key Goals

Roadmap 1.0 was rolled out in 2016, laying down initial strategic directions centred on "low-carbonisation, digitalisation, and intelligent mobility". Roadmap 2.0 followed in 2020, targeting 2035 with six overarching goals—including making new energy vehicles (NEVs) mainstream products and achieving core electrification across the automotive sector—while expanding the research scope from "1+7" to "1+9".

Roadmap 3.0 was unveiled in October 2025 following an 18-month effort by over 2,000 local and international experts. Targeting 2040, it introduces an all-new "1+5+26" framework (1 overall industry blueprint, 5 core technology clusters, 26 specialised domains), establishing parallel technology roadmaps for "automotive products" and "automotive manufacturing". This marks a strategic shift from being "product technology-focused" to a "dual-driven approach combining product and manufacturing technologies".

3. Core Goals of Roadmap 3.0 (2040)

Roadmap 3.0 sets out seven primary goals:

• Early Peak in Carbon Emissions: Automotive industry carbon emissions are projected to peak ahead of schedule around 2028, with total emissions dropping by more than 60% from their peak by 2040.

• Dominant Market Share for NEVs: The penetration rate of new energy vehicles will exceed 80%, accelerating the transition towards full electrification.

• Deepening of Intelligent Connected Vehicles: With a mature "vehicle-road-cloud" integrated infrastructure ecosystem in place, Level 4 autonomous vehicles will achieve widespread adoption, while Level 5 systems will begin commercial deployment.

• Leading Scientific and Technological Innovation: China aims to become the primary global hub for original automotive technology breakthroughs, spearheading worldwide innovation.

• Modernisation of Industrial Clusters: Establish a modern automotive industry cluster that is innovation-led, data-driven, highly collaborative, resilient, secure, and low-carbon sustainable.

• Enhanced Brand Competitiveness: Significantly elevate the global competitiveness of Chinese automotive marques, positioning them among the world's leading automotive powerhouses.

• Production and Sales Scale Projections: Over the next 5 to 15 years, China's total automotive production and sales volume (including domestic sales, exports, and overseas output) is projected to reach around 40 million units.

4. Key Technologies and Consensus by Domain

Powertrain Diversification (ICE & EV Co-existence): Roadmap 3.0 confirms that internal combustion engines will remain a vital power source for vehicles. By 2035, conventional ICE passenger cars will undergo comprehensive hybridisation; by 2040, ICE-equipped passenger cars (HEVs, PHEVs, and REEVs) will still account for around one-third of total new passenger car sales. The maximum thermal efficiency of dedicated hybrid engines is projected to reach 48%.

Iterative Upgrading of NEVs: By 2040, the penetration rate of new energy passenger cars will exceed 85%, with battery electric vehicles (BEVs) accounting for 80%. Meanwhile, commercial NEV applications will progressively expand from urban and short-haul logistics to medium- and long-haul operations.

Evolution of Intelligent Connected Vehicles (ICVs): ICVs are entering a fast lane of commercialisation. Shared foundational technologies (smart chassis, electrical/electronic architecture, automotive chips, and operating systems) are advancing towards seamless integration, fostering an open-source, open ecosystem with vertical integration across software, hardware, and silicon.

Intelligent Manufacturing Included for the First Time: Roadmap 3.0 introduces an automotive intelligent manufacturing grading system and implementation methodology for the first time, targeting full integration across R&D, production, supply chain, sales, and aftersales by 2040.

Key Technology Milestones: All-solid-state batteries are expected to see initial small-scale deployment by 2030, with large-scale global rollouts projected for 2035; the operational fleet of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) will achieve a phased breakthrough from tens of thousands to millions of units, with the total volume expected to surpass 4 million units by 2040.