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As summer fades and autumn arrives, a gentle breeze and drizzle bring morning chill. Forecasting the Q4 car market now is like viewing distant mountains in autumn rain: the outline is visible, but details are hard to grasp. At the end of Q3, the domestic car market did not show the traditional excitement of "September and October", but instead showed signs of fatigue amidst fluctuating fuel prices, policy shifts, and overseas trade friction. Q4 is always the period to determine the overall year's outcome, but this year's variables are obviously more complex than in previous years. In my opinion, there are only two keywords for the Q4 car market: the shift from oil to electric, and a slowdown in exports. The old variable of fuel prices is disrupting again. The long-awaited new regulations from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on new energy vehicles have landed, and the quality improvement special action is in full swing. The industry directly faces safety and quality challenges for new energy vehicles. Against the backdrop of combined internal and external pressures, industry reshuffling will accelerate significantly.
Fuel Price Volatility: Fuel Vehicles Face a 'Cost Pressure Test'
International oil prices at the end of Q3 have already shown signs of rising easily and falling with difficulty. Smoke still rises over the Strait of Hormuz, Middle Eastern geopolitical friction is repetitive, OPEC+ production cut execution rate is unstable, plus monetary policy shifts in major global economies. Brent crude oscillates violently in the 70-95 USD/barrel range. It is not excluded that Q4 will see a pulse rise to $100 due to unexpected events. Every jump in oil prices transmits to domestic refined oil prices. For fuel vehicle users, fuel costs are a 'chronic cost', more sensitive than vehicle prices.
In Q4, the north will enter the heating season, diesel and gasoline demand will rise seasonally, and refinery operations and blending costs may also push up terminal oil prices. The impact of high oil prices on fuel vehicles is not a one-size-fits-all: luxury brand and large SUV users have a higher tolerance for oil prices, but family users in the 100,000-200,000 yuan range will recalculate. Taking a family car with 8L/100km as an example, for every 0.5 yuan increase per liter in oil price, the annual cost for 15,000 km increases by 600 yuan; it seems small, but it is a significant burden in the family budget. More crucial is psychological expectation: once 95 octane gasoline approaches 9 yuan/liter, undecided users will accelerate towards plug-in hybrids and pure BEVs. The author often conducts purchase preference votes in livestream rooms. In the past, netizens choosing fuel vehicles were far ahead of new energy vehicles, but in the last two weeks, the votes for new energy vehicles are very close to fuel vehicles, it can be described as neck and neck.
The author estimates fuel vehicles will not completely 'crash' in Q4. On one hand, low winter temperatures cause pure electric vehicle range shrinkage and charging efficiency decline, the north and third and fourth-tier markets still have many consumers viewing fuel vehicles as a necessity; on the other hand, automakers will increase terminal discounts on fuel vehicles at the end of the year to complete sales targets. Price drops for some models will offset the anxiety of increased usage costs brought by rising oil prices. Of course, what really gets hurt are those high fuel consumption, low brand premium fuel models, especially the mid-to-low end products left over from the National V/National VI transition period, which will likely be accelerated out of clearance in Q4.
The impact of oil prices on exports needs to be analyzed differently. Rising oil prices directly push up ocean RoRo and container shipping costs. Logistics costs for Chinese complete vehicle exports to Europe, Africa, and Latin America increase, compressing per-vehicle profit. However, energy-exporting countries such as the Middle East, Russia, and Central Asia see improved fiscal revenue during the oil price rise cycle, and import vehicle demand may instead strengthen. Therefore, the Q4 export market will show differentiation of 'East dark, West bright', which poses higher requirements for Chinese brand market strategies. In fact, based on the experience of past oil crises in the last century and the nature of energy game since the Russia-Ukraine war, oil prices have never been a purely economic issue; it is a shadow of geopolitics. This year in Q4, this shadow will be pulled longer.
MIIT New Regulations Land and Quality Improvement Action Launches: New Energy Vehicles Move from 'Sprinting' to 'Main Race'
The MIIT's new regulations in the new energy vehicle field this year have been discussed by the industry for some time. The core directions amount to three: raising safety thresholds for power batteries and whole vehicle quality control, strictly controlling new energy vehicle quality, tightening energy consumption limits for pure electric passenger vehicles, and improving new energy credit carryover and assessment. The new regulations enter centralized implementation and transition countdown in Q4, and the impact on the industry is deeper than imagined.
Firstly, raising safety thresholds will put pressure on some low-end pure electric models. The 'price for volume' idea of new energy vehicles in the past few years spawned a batch of micro EVs with less than 300km range and relatively simple battery management systems. July regulations propose stricter requirements for thermal runaway protection, post-collision battery safety, charging process monitoring, etc. Compliance costs for such models will rise significantly. Some enterprises may choose to clear inventory in Q4, or even exit the market. Looking at the complaint ratio of fault points on Vehicle Quality Network, power battery faults, exaggerated range, car machine black screen, etc. have long been at the forefront. The new regulations are like putting a rein on wild growth. The author has always held a view: New energy vehicles cannot rely only on subsidies and policies to hasten ripening; the safety bottom line must be held by mandatory standards.
Secondly, tightening energy consumption limits will change the competition landscape of pure electric and plug-in hybrid. MIIT new regulations propose graded requirements for electric consumption per 100km for pure electric models. The path of simply piling up batteries and vehicle weight to exchange for long range is no longer viable. This is a test for high-end pure electric SUVs relying on large batteries and high vehicle weight, while being relatively friendly to lighter and more energy-saving sedans. At the same time, plug-in hybrid and extended range models can balance long-distance refueling convenience and fuel consumption reduction, and will continue high-speed growth in Q4. The author judges, inside new energy vehicles there will be a phased switch of 'pure electric growth slowing, plug-in hybrid and extended range taking the lead', this is the most rational market choice under policy guidance.
Thirdly, stricter credit assessment means fuel vehicle enterprises must purchase more new energy positive credits, or increase the release of their own new energy models. Q4 is itself the annual closing period for credit compliance. Under new regulations, credit ratio requirements increase. Some joint venture brands and large autonomous fuel car owners face dual pressures: on one hand, fuel vehicle terminals need promotion to boost volume, on the other hand, rising credit costs devour profits. Reflected in the market, the price war will not stop, but will expand from new energy vehicle 'intense competition' to fuel and electricity jointly lowering prices. Dealer inventory pressure may peak in December.
It is worth noting that MIIT new regulations are not only 'regulating' but also 'supporting'. For enterprises with complete R&D, manufacturing, and quality assurance capabilities, new regulations give more convenience in access and product declaration; reinforcing 'shell companies' and OEM models, aiming to curb low-level repeated construction. In Q4, some new energy brands lacking core technologies and relying on badge engineering may accelerate exit, industry concentration increases. Especially the MIIT motor vehicle quality improvement special action launched earlier this month, and the concentrated exposure of new energy vehicle production consistency violation cases, etc., unusual actions, all point to the short-sighted behavior of exchanging quality for volume during the rapid development stage of new energy vehicles. This is actually a good thing for the consumer rights concerned by the Vehicle Quality Network - disordered competition decreases, quality backstop ability enhances. From recent Vehicle Quality Network complaint data analysis, the proportion of new energy vehicle quality problem complaints has exceeded fuel vehicles. After new regulations implementation, if enterprises continue to treat users as 'guinea pigs', the cost will be increasingly high.
Export 'Volume Boost' Myth Cools: Localization and Compliance Become Decisive Factors
In the past two years, China's auto exports marched high and strong. Especially this year retail has declined, wholesale has risen, some automakers export increase exceeded 100%, indicating exports have become a pressure relief valve for enterprises to get rid of domestic decline plight. But Q4 is feared to be hard to continue single-sided rise momentum. Monthly growth may lose speed for three reasons: First, EU's countervailing duties on Chinese EVs have produced substantive impact. Although some enterprises avoid through local factory building, capacity ramp-up takes time; Second, due to sanctions and local policy adjustments in the Russian market, although Chinese brands occupy a larger share, payment collection, logistics, and localization production requirements are becoming stricter, profit margin narrows; Third, emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, Middle East, Latin America although growth speed is fast, base is limited, and Japanese/Korean car enterprises are counter-attacking.
More hidden variables are shipping and exchange rates. High oil prices superimposed with Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz geopolitical risks still exist, global main shipping route freight fluctuations increase. China's auto exports highly rely on sea transport. RoRo capacity tension situation although has eased, but insurance surcharges and detour costs rise. Q4 export single vehicle logistics costs may increase hundreds to thousands of RMB. For Chinese brands relying on cost-effectiveness to fight the market, it is not a small amount. In addition, USD, EUR and RMB exchange rate fluctuations have increased recently, which will also affect export profit settlement.
However, export growth slowdown does not equal turning point downward. Chinese auto enterprises are shifting from 'complete vehicle export' to 'capacity going overseas'. Q4 will have more CKD and SKD projects land or expand production in Thailand, Indonesia, Brazil, Hungary. This model can bypass tariff barriers, reduce logistics costs, and integrate into local supply chains. But local production also proposes higher requirements for quality consistency, after-sales service, and brand management. Overseas marketing costs will show an upward trend. Although Vehicle Quality Network currently takes attention to domestic market quality service as responsibility, but from research by consulting firm Kelair, overseas market on 'Chinese car' quality expectation is rising. Once batch quality problems appear, it will surely affect the overall brand image. Chinese brands overseas cannot rely only on price and configuration to win. Service network and parts supply are the cornerstone of long-term competitiveness.
Comprehensive judgment, Q4 domestic narrow-sense passenger vehicle retail most likely YoY slightly increase or flat, but full year YoY decline is virtually inevitable. China Association of Automobile Distributors Passenger Car Market Branch predicts, August new energy vehicles Month-on-Month and Year-on-Year will return to positive growth, Q4 increase tends to stabilize; In terms of penetration rate, August is expected to break 70%, while Q4 is expected to touch 55%-58%, but growth speed slower than previous two years significantly; Export YoY growth speed may narrow to 10%-15%, structurally from 'volume boost' to 'network building'. Simply from the numbers, the increase is not satisfactory. What is truly worth alerting to is, industry profit margin and dealer health may continue to deteriorate under price war and compliance cost dual squeeze.
Conclusion:
2026 Q4 car market will not be a calm straight line. High volatility of oil prices tests fuel vehicle cost resilience, MIIT new regulations draw clearer track boundaries for new energy vehicles, exports then turn from quantity change to quality change amidst external environment complication. For automakers, Q4 is not about who is louder, but who has healthy inventory, stable cash flow, and product quality that can withstand a magnifying glass. The shift of fuel and electricity is also not who replaces whom, but each finding a more suitable survival space. As stated by Great Wall Motor Chairman Wei Jianjun: In the next hundred years fuel vehicles will not disappear, but electric drive will become the mainstream of the era. Only change is constant. In the turbulent great change of the world auto market, the only thing that can be determined is, those enterprises that count policy, oil prices and overseas risks into costs may possibly stand firm in next spring or even further future.
