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Does anyone recall January of this year, when a Chinese car brand's single-month market share in Thailand once reached 47.3%, surpassing Japanese brands that had ruled the local market for sixty years for the first time. However, the laws that extremes reverse and tall trees invite wind still played out on Chinese vehicles.
One month later, as soon as Thailand's subsidy policy tightened, the Chinese brands' market share plummeted from 47.3% to 11.65%. From 'surpassing Japanese brands' to 'collective disappearance', it only took one month.
By August, it became increasingly difficult for domestic cars in Thailand, with Japanese brands retaking the top two spots in the Thai market. Toyota secured the top spot with 16,233 units, while Honda came in second with 5,499 units. Among Chinese brands, Chery ranked highest with 4,945 units in third place, a gap of over 500 units from Honda. BYD's August sales were only 2,591 units, ranking seventh.
From approaching Toyota in January to being left behind by over 11,000 units by Toyota in August, the 'Anti-Japanese' script of Chinese brands in Thailand is being rewritten piece by piece by reality.
Japanese Brands Counterattack, Domestic Cars Lose Top Two Spots
In August this year, domestic car sales in Thailand remained weak. Toyota with 16,233 units and Honda with 5,499 units took the top two spots, with Japanese brands reclaiming the second-place sales position lost for some time.
Many Chinese brands were still present in the top ten sales list for the month, including Chery with 4,945 units in third, MG with 3,273 units in fourth, Great Wall with 2,931 units in fifth, while the former 'vanguard of the fight against Japanese brands' BYD had sales of 2,591 units in seventh place, Geely and Aion ranking eighth and tenth with 2,267 and 1,492 units respectively.
Looking at August sales, the six Chinese brands in the top ten sales list had a cumulative total of 17,499 units, only about 1,200 units more than Toyota ranked first, a huge gap.
A more cruel reality is that the growth of Chinese brands in Thailand mainly relied on price wars and subsidy dividends, rather than brand loyalty.
Some Thai taxi drivers stated directly: 'Worried about difficult repairs, so I still prioritize choosing Japanese brands'. When the price advantage is leveled by policy, consumer choices return to the old path of brand trust.
However, waiting for Chinese auto companies is not just subsidy reductions, but also unprecedented 'straitjacket' restrictive policies.
Domestic Cars' 'Anti-Japanese' Campaign Meets 'Straitjacket' Restrictions
On May 14 this year, 10 automotive and parts industry associations in Thailand jointly submitted 8 urgent policy recommendations to the government, calling for reform of the consumption tax structure and raising localization rate requirements. These associations represent over 1,500 enterprises, almost all of which have direct or indirect cooperative relationships with Japanese brands.
By August, Thailand's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance publicly stated that the Ministry of Finance is studying raising the consumption tax on imported electric vehicles from the current 10% to over 32%. The new plan is expected to complete detail reviews and submit to the cabinet by the end of September. The Federation of Thai Automotive Industries even suggested raising tax rates by 30% to 50%.
What does this mean? For a base-model pure electric car with a landed price of 400,000 Thai Baht (about 82,000 RMB), after the consumption tax rises from 10% to 32%, just the landed tax cost alone will skyrocket drastically. China's core price advantage for electric vehicles in Thailand will be completely destroyed.
Data from Kasikorn Bank's research institute shows that in 2026, Chinese brands' market share in Thailand's new energy market reached as high as 91%, while the Japanese share has fallen from over 90% before 2020 to around 60%.
Facing these aggressive Chinese car 'outsiders', Japanese brands in Thailand have started to band together. In August this year, executives from Japanese brands such as Toyota, Honda, and Mitsubishi began speaking directly, demanding tax rate adjustments to ensure 'fair competition'.
Apart from consumption tax adjustments, Thailand's EV3.5 policy is also tightening continuously.
In 2026, the ratio of imported to locally produced must reach 1:2. For every 5 percentage point increase in the local parts procurement rate, the consumption tax rate can be reduced by 0.5 percentage points. The proportion of imported batteries counted towards the local procurement rate has returned to zero after June 30.
One could say that Chinese automobiles copying the 'price war' tactics used domestically in Thailand triggered strong backlash from multiple local governments and existing industrial forces. Formulating 'straitjacket' policies targeting Chinese cars has become irreversible.
From Thailand's perspective, once Chinese cars occupy the Thai market without building factories locally, it is equivalent to telling the world that Thailand is merely a consumption market for overseas car brands. This obviously runs counter to Thailand's industrial dream of transforming itself into a Southeast Asian new energy vehicle manufacturing hub.
Southeast Asia Begins 'Strictly Preventing' Chinese Cars
Even more troublesome is that this 'strict blockade' is spreading from Thailand to the entire Southeast Asia region.
Starting July 1, 2026, Malaysia formally implemented new regulations for electric vehicles. All CBU electric vehicle landed prices must not be lower than 200,000 Ringgit (about 320,000 RMB), and motor output power must not be lower than 180 kilowatts. For Chinese brands where cost-performance is the core competitiveness, this is equivalent to directly cutting off the channel for low-priced models entering Malaysia.
Indonesia's 'localization rate' assessment is also layering up restrictions. According to Indonesia's 2023 Presidential Regulation No. 79, the localization rate (TKDN) of electric vehicles must reach 40% between 2022 and 2026, increase to 60% from 2027 to 2029, and rise further to 80% starting from 2030. Indonesia's House of Representatives Committee VII made it clear that even if Chinese electric vehicles are selling well in Indonesia, they must still meet this localization rate requirement.
Meanwhile, starting January 1, 2026, Indonesia officially cancelled the tax-free policy for complete vehicle imports. Tariffs returned directly to the legal range of 10% to 50%. Chinese auto companies that previously rapidly penetrated the Indonesian market relying on policy subsidies now face significant price increase pressure.
Vietnam has also joined this round of policy tightening. On June 29, 2026, Vietnam submitted the draft 'National Automotive Safety and Environmental Technical Regulations', stipulating technical safety quality and environmental requirements for newly manufactured, assembled, and imported vehicles. This draft regulation is expected to formally take effect in October 2026 and will make comprehensive requirements on the technical safety and environmental standards for imported vehicles. Combined with the strict administrative approval and quota management for temporarily imported foreign test vehicles prior to this, the difficulty of exporting Chinese cars to Vietnam is increasing.
These four countries are the core markets for Southeast Asian automotive consumption and the most important 'bridgeheads' for Chinese auto companies' exports right at their doorstep. Now, without exception, all have strengthened restrictions on Chinese cars. Chinese auto companies will undoubtedly have a hard time in Southeast Asia in the future.
The performance of Chinese automobiles in the Southeast Asian market a few months ago was like a short-lived beautiful dream. Now the dream has awakened, and the true test has begun.
