Have you ever seen the roads in India?
I've seen them online.
The scene is usually like this: a sedan blocked behind a cow, motorcycles running wild nearby, even milk tea vendors nearby, so "clean and hygienic".
However, in a place where many feel physically uncomfortable after watching, Toyota, Suzuki, Honda and other Japanese car companies decided to bet on India.
According to the Indian "Brand Quality Foundation" website, the three car companies will invest nearly $11 billion to build factories, increase capacity, and develop exports in India.
Some netizens commented: Did the three Japanese car companies have too much money?
In fact, they didn't have endless money to spend, nor were they bewildered by Indian curry. These Japanese car executives are much clearer than us.
Current Japanese car revenue and market share are declining. Raw material costs are soaring. Looking at the world map, finding a market that can accommodate capacity, expand share, and has gentle competition is not easy.
So, it wasn't that Japanese car companies chose India, but because they had no choice.
The Pain of Japanese Car Companies
Past Japanese cars were truly the envy of others.
Ask old drivers who drove Japanese cars over ten years ago, talking about Japanese cars, almost no one doesn't give a thumbs up, cheap price, fuel saving, durable...
Even many Japanese cars needed to be bought at a markup, but who would think this iron fortress would be beaten out of sight in a few short years.
With the wave of new energy vehicles coming, electrification and intelligence became the goal for many domestic car companies to "leapfrog". Relying on China's strong new energy vehicle industry chain advantages and car companies' own persistence on R&D and technology, Chinese independent brands quickly achieved "leapfrogging".
Domestic cars once criticized are now becoming more and more common on the roads, even surpassing joint ventures in share.
According to CPCA data, in April 2026, the share of independent brands reached as high as 62.5%, far exceeding Japan's 13.1%.
You need to know, the Chinese car market is the largest car market in the world. Losing speed in the Chinese market is like losing a huge piece of cake.
Meanwhile, the main theme of the Chinese market in recent years is still price wars. Racing on configuration, price, and service has become a normal state, which also had a huge impact on Japanese cars' profits.
Apart from China, Japanese cars are also not doing well in the US.
On January 20, 2025, Trump swore in as the 47th US President, starting a series of chaotic operations, including imposing additional car tariffs in the name of national security, causing the tariff rate for imported Japanese cars to reach as high as 27.5% at one point. Although it decreased later, it was still far higher than the initial tax rate.
This operation directly led to a tariff loss of over 2 trillion yen for seven Japanese car companies in fiscal year 2025.
Looking at Japan itself, it is actually not easy either.
Middle East geopolitical conflicts blocked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, transportation costs and raw material costs soared, Japanese car companies also had to suffer in silence.
Executives looking at the reports, their backs went cold, only to find a new growth curve.
So, Japanese car companies didn't fall in love with India, there was nowhere else to go.
Deep Thought on Choosing India
So, what magic does India have, to make Japanese car companies invest heavily?
The first advantage is big. In 2025, the Indian car market achieved 5.517 million new car sales, up 6% year-on-year, breaking the historical record, ranking as the third largest car market in the world, exceeding Japan for four consecutive years, second only to China and the United States.
The value of this doesn't need me to say much. India achieved this result mainly because India has been promoting tax reduction policies to promote consumption, which led to a significant increase in domestic consumption willingness.
The second advantage is close, meaning it is close to places where Japanese cars sell well, such as Africa.
So, India for Japanese car companies is more like a convenience store built in the center of a crossroad. You don't need to ship cars to eight countries separately, just build well at this stop in India, then unload ship by ship, and you can save a lot of costs.
The Nikkei also believes that India is expected to become its global car supply center.
The third advantage is stability. You know, Japanese cars' advantage is fuel cars, after all, the three major components of engines, gearboxes, and chassis, they have played for many years, technology accumulation is number one in the world.
But the Chinese car market has fully promoted electrification and intelligence development, leading to Japanese cars' advantage becoming weaker and weaker, impossible to play out. But India is different, it has the characteristics of few charging piles and slow electrification process. Indian old people buying cars still look for cheap, fuel saving, easy to fix, and these three points are exactly Japanese cars' old trade.
Especially Suzuki, always been India's car market evergreen, almost always sitting on the best-selling model throne, reputation of being worry-free, better than any advertisement.
So, Japanese car companies' vigorous layout of the Indian market is obviously carefully considered.
But, is the Indian market really that easy to mix?
The Hard-to-Bite Indian Market
Of course, India is not perfect like a hot commodity, its disadvantages are as obvious as its advantages, and every one is enough for Japanese car companies to face a hard time.
First talk about electrification. Yes, right now India has few charging piles and electric cars don't sell well, it is indeed a shelter for Japanese fuel cars. But you have to think, how long can this "shelter" avoid?
India previously shouted the slogan of 30% of new cars being electric vehicles by 2030. Although it sounds like bragging, but can't help but they really give subsidies, really build charging stations.
Imagine, what if one day India suddenly wakes up, starts vigorously promoting electrification, doing infrastructure, charging piles popping out like mushrooms after rain, then Japanese cars will be dumbfounded?
Isn't this a version of the Thai market?
Back then Japanese cars in Thailand won easily. The entire Southeast Asian market was called Japanese cars' backyard. Result Thailand took the lead in promoting electrification. Chinese electric vehicles came in, directly became a hot commodity. Look at Japanese cars again, share in Thailand falling down rapidly.
If India accelerates electrification, history will likely repeat, and this time, Japanese cars don't even have a place to flee, how to prevent will become the first problem for Japanese car companies.
Next talk about policy. India's policy is like a pot of curry, you never know if you will eat chicken or potato next time.
This magical country, today low tariff encourages building factories, tomorrow may fine you a huge amount. What's more annoying is mandatory joint venture. Foreign car companies want to sell cars in India, have to find local partners to partner up. When your factory is built, supply chain is done, India directly backstabs you. At that time whether adding money or withdrawing capital, what you get is heartache.
So you see, this market like India is like a mango that looks very sweet, bite the first mouth it's okay, chew two more mouths hit the hard core.
Japanese cars now is calculating, while the core hasn't bit the tooth, hurry up to nibble a few more mouths, but the core will bite sooner or later, just don't know which day.
Epilogue
Japanese cars this trip to India, not go for tourism, is go to make a living.
Chinese and Southeast Asian dining tables are more crowded, production and transportation costs have risen. Looking around the world, only this pot in India is still steaming, even if what is boiling inside is curry-flavored stones, have to bite hard and chew down.
Japanese car companies want to expand market, India wants to pull economy, solve employment, both sides have their own thoughts.
As for the ending is Japanese cars in India regain their glory, or like past competitors shamefully walk away, then is not known.
But no matter how, this play just started, we slowly watch is okay.
Anyway India's story, never bored.
