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In August, the domestic tire industry continued to exhibit operational characteristics of "weak demand, reduced capacity utilization, and high inventory." From the order structure perspective, semi-steel tires were supported by snow tire production scheduling, with domestic sales showing marginal improvement. However, EU trade friction dragged down exports, compounded by insufficient incremental domestic replacement demand, so overall orders remained weak.
Full-steel tires, as northern high temperatures eased and the southern flood season concluded, saw replacement demand moderately recovering. However, excess capacity limited the rebound space, and the industry supply side may continue with production control and maintenance status.
Semi-Steel Tires: Snow Tires Support Domestic Sales Bottom, Exports Still Dragged Down
From the order situation of semi-steel tire sample enterprises, overall orders continued to operate weakly, with export pressure being particularly prominent.
Industry surveys show that 42% of enterprises saw their export order volume decline to varying degrees compared to the previous month, while about 58% of enterprises had export orders flat compared to the previous month. The core reason for order weakening is EU anti-dumping constraints.
In response to direct supply order losses in the European market, enterprises are actively developing other overseas markets to seek overall order stability, while relying on overseas bases to take on transferred orders.
Chinese-backed bases in Southeast Asia such as Vietnam and Thailand exported tires to Europe in the first four months of 2026, growing year-on-year by 165% and 147% respectively, but Southeast Asia's overall production capacity is already close to full load, making it difficult to fully replace in the short term. Some enterprises with overseas capacity have full orders at overseas bases, but overall order performance still fell short of expectations.
Signals of marginal improvement appeared in domestic sales. Entering the snow tire production period, enterprises increased production efforts, forming certain support for domestic order increments.
However, domestic replacement demand is constrained by factors such as consumption downgrading and increased ownership of new energy vehicles bringing longer tire replacement cycles, limiting overall increments and weakening order performance. Channels had high reserve inventory earlier, combined with unchanged bearish market expectations, dealers are cautious in stocking, production enterprises are conservative in production scheduling.
From capacity utilization data, on July 30, semi-steel tire sample enterprises had a capacity utilization rate of 63.98%, a month-on-month improvement of 1.21 percentage points, but a year-on-year decrease of 6.00 percentage points.
In July, semi-steel tire production was about 50.77 million tires, a month-on-month decrease of 12.66%, and a year-on-year decrease of 10.88%. The month-on-month rebound in capacity utilization rate mostly reflects supply recovery after maintenance, rather than strong expansion on the demand side.
Full-Steel Tires: Demand Recovers Gently, Rebound Space Limited
From the order situation of full-steel tire sample enterprises, overall operation remained stable but weak. Regarding export orders, 63% of full-steel tire sample enterprises had export orders stable compared to the previous month, 33% of sample enterprises had export orders reduced compared to the previous month, with a small amount expecting incremental growth.
Orders in regions such as Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia were still relatively good, supporting the overall picture, but overseas trade friction still exists, limiting overall increments.
Signs of moderate recovery appeared in domestic sales. With northern high temperatures easing and the southern flood season gradually concluding, some transportation vehicle departure rates recovered, replacement demand will recover gently. On July 30, full-steel tire sample enterprises had a capacity utilization rate of 63.80%; for the whole month of July, full-steel tire production was 13.01 million tires, a month-on-month decrease of 1.66%, but a year-on-year growth of 2.04%.
However, rebound space is significantly constrained. The status of "too many vehicles, too little cargo" still exists, low freight rates inhibit the willingness of logistics practitioners to replace tires, and incremental demand for full-steel tire replacement is limited.
From the inventory end, as of the end of July, full-steel tire sample enterprises' finished product inventory turnover days were about 39.43 days, and semi-steel tires were about 45.56 days. Affected by production control, the industry shows a state of "passive de-stocking", turnover days improved month-on-month, but absolute inventory levels remain at a high level in recent years.
Production Control and Maintenance Remain Short-Term Norm
Under such a market environment, overall, the status of enterprise production control and flexible maintenance will continue.
According to Lonzhong Information's survey forecast on capacity utilization rates for the next cycle, only 3.33% of semi-steel tire samples have an expectation of increase, 10% of enterprises have an expectation of decrease, and 86.67% of enterprises stated that operation will remain stable.
This survey result intuitively reflects the cautious attitude of enterprises — before inventory de-stocking achieves substantial progress and export orders show a clear turning point, production control, reduction of load, and flexible maintenance will be the normalized operations for the industry in the short term.
For tire enterprises, the core contradiction currently lies not in the supply side but in the demand side. Whether recovering semi-steel export orders or repairing full-steel replacement demand, time is needed.
Before the turning point arrives, maintaining low inventory and stable cash flow is more important than blindly increasing production.
